Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, July 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 25-4 (86.2%, +15.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 52.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs COL)
TEXAS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. LAA: 8-28 record (22.2%) for -19.41 units, ROI: -53.9%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+119 vs HOU)
Trend: Luis Castillo’s teams are 5-15 (-9.85 units) when he starts as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-102 at TB)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 152-120 for -2.66 units and an ROI of -1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-119 vs PHI), HOUSTON (-143 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 34-29 for –4.54 units (ROI -7.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-126 vs MIL), CINCINNATI (-105 vs CHC)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 51-88 for -41.51 units and an ROI of -29.9%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-102 at TB)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 103-132 for +2.31 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost over 7.5 units the last four-and-a-half weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-102 at DET), WASHINGTON (+134 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (+129 at BAL), TEXAS (+119 vs HOU), ATHLETICS (+139 at CWS), COLORADO (+128 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 48-26 for -9.52 units, ROI -12.9%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-267 vs AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 184-239 for -35.27 units. This ROI of -8.3% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+104 at PIT), BOSTON (+114 at NYM), LA ANGELS (+124 at MIN)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 157-99 for +39.25 units, an ROI of +15.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-119 vs PHI), MIAMI (-122 vs CLE), TAMPA BAY (-118 vs SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-114 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-125 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 121-147 start for -20.82 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-137 vs BOS), TORONTO (+104 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 94-95 for +12.42 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-102 at TB), ATHLETICS (+139 at CWS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 496-395 for +43.99 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-119 vs PHI), MIAMI (-122 vs CLE), BOSTON (+114 at NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 246-180 for +26.52 units and an ROI of 6.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 at CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 145-192 for -43.89 units and an ROI of -13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-102 vs CHC), TEXAS (+119 vs HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 449-399 record for +44.25 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+104 at PIT), NY YANKEES (-162 at WSH), ATLANTA (-168 at STL), TORONTO (+104 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,151-2,031 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.57 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2176-2752 (44.2%) for -271.94 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, ATHLETICS, PHILADELPHIA, COLORADO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 653-549 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.88 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-168 vs ATH), CINCINNATI (-102 vs CHC)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 65-43-5 (60.2%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 35-16 Over streak in the last 51).
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-PIT (o/u at 8)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 105-150 SU (-20.88 units, ROI: -8.2%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+119 vs HOU)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 234-269 SU but for +48.82 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+129 at BAL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 81-69 (+15.63 units, ROI: 10.4%) in their last 150 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+114 at NYM), DETROIT (-119 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 193-159 (+11.72 units, ROI: 3.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+114 at NYM), DETROIT (-119 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +215 (+40 diff), WASHINGTON +134 (+20), CINCINNATI -102 (+20), BOSTON +114 (+16), MILWAUKEE +104 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TAMPA BAY -118 (+45 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -155 (+36), HOUSTON -143 (+35), BALTIMORE -156 (+20)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: KC-BAL UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), HOU-TEX UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), AZ-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), TOR-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), PHI-DET UNDER 9 (-0.6), NYY-WSH UNDER 10 (-0.5), LAA-MIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MILWAUKEE (59-34) at (902) PITTSBURGH (47-47)
Trend: MIL is 11-3 (+6.96 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at PIT)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (52-41) at (904) CINCINNATI (42-50)
Trend: CHC is 37-17 (+12.24 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-114 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 12-22 (-11.41 units) vs divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-105 vs CHC)
(905) ATLANTA (54-38) at (906) ST LOUIS (48-44)
Trend: STL is 37-18 (+11.36 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs ATL)
(907) ARIZONA (46-47) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-33)
Trend: AZ is 15-28 (-9.42 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+215 at LAD)
(909) COLORADO (38-57) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (39-54)
Trend: Under the total is 21-10 (+10.10 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SF (o/u at 8)
Trend: SF is 28-11 (+19.11 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs COL)
(911) KANSAS CITY (38-56) at (912) BALTIMORE (43-51)
Trend: KC is 18-30 (-8.05 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 at BAL)
(913) SEATTLE (47-47) at (914) TAMPA BAY (54-37)
Trend: Luis Castillo’s teams are 5-15 (-9.85 units) when he starts as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in L6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-102 at TB)
Trend: TB is 31-16 (+20.75 units) on the run line at HOME this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs SEA)
(915) ATHLETICS (41-52) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (47-45)
Trend: CWS is 28-17 (+12.81 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-168 vs ATH)
(917) HOUSTON (46-49) at (918) TEXAS (47-46)
Trend: HOU is 4-10 (-7.82 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-143 at TEX)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-57) at (920) MINNESOTA (46-48)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 20-5 (+13.77 units) in his last 25 starts vs below .500 opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+130 at MIN)
(921) PHILADELPHIA (52-42) at (922) DETROIT (43-50)
Trend: PHI is 16-29 (-10.93 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-102 at DET)
(923) NEW YORK-AL (51-42) at (924) WASHINGTON (48-46)
Trend: Over the total is 31-14-3 (+15.60 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYY-WSH (o/u at 10)
(925) CLEVELAND (48-46) at (926) MIAMI (52-42)
Trend: MIA is 31-17 (+10.78 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-122 vs CLE)
(927) BOSTON (43-48) at (928) NEW YORK-NL (40-54)
Trend: Sonny Gray’s teams are 12-2 (+11.09 units) when he starts as a road underdog between line range +105 to +115 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+114 at NYM)
(929) TORONTO (44-49) at (930) SAN DIEGO (46-47)
Trend: Shane Bieber’s teams are 15-3 (+12.40 units) in his last 18 starts vs NL Central/West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+104 at SD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #34: Colorado at San Francisco, Thu 7/9-Sun 7/12
Trend: SAN FRANCISCO is on a 25-4 (86.2%, +15.15 units) surge hosting Colorado.
– The ROI on this trend is 52.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, MIAMI, BOSTON, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-CIN
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 27-11 (71.1%) +10.61 units, ROI: 27.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-162 at WSH)
TEXAS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 8-28 (22.2%) -19.41 units, ROI: -53.9%
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+119 vs HOU)
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