MLB Best Bets Today July 10
A full Friday dance card is on tap as we have our final weekend of the “first half” of the MLB season. It should be noted that “first half” is absolutely a misnomer, given that there are 162 games in a season and every team has played well over 90 games. Nevertheless, the Midsummer Classic is Tuesday and that means we have three more regular season days before some players get a much-needed break and others let loose with their peers, family, and friends in Philadelphia.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 10:
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction
Pick: Pirates -126
The Brewers head to Pittsburgh to wrap up the first half and you have to wonder how they’re feeling today. Armed with a seven-game lead in the division, Milwaukee goes into Friday’s game after arriving at PIT after 2:30 a.m. ET, as they left St. Louis after midnight CT. The Brew Crew hasn’t had a day off since June 25, as they’re now on their third city of an 11-game road trip, having played five games in St. Louis, including a doubleheader on Tuesday, and three in Phoenix to get it started.
Brandon Sproat gets the start tonight, as he has a 5.13 ERA with a 4.72 xERA and a 4.92 FIP in his 79 innings of work. He’s been very good of late with just three runs allowed on 10 hits in 15.1 innings over three starts. He’s struck out 25 and only walked five, so the stuff has been good and he’s put some early-season issues in the past.
Unfortunately, this is a tricky matchup for him. In 175 PA against LHB, Sproat has allowed a .238/.353/.415 slash with a .343 wOBA, as he only has a 45/22 K/BB ratio in that split. He’s given up 11 of his 15 doubles to LHB. Righties have hit nine of the 14 HR he has allowed. So, there are definitely some command worries here.
On the other side, Braxton Ashcraft’s breakout season has arrived. He sports a 3.24 ERA with a 3.18 xERA and a 3.16 FIP over 108.1 innings of work. His worst starts this season have all come on the road, as he owns a 3.19 ERA in 53.2 innings at PNC Park.
There is a chance that this game starts late due to weather, which would put even more strain on the Brewers’ beaten-up bodies. I’ll lay it with Pittsburgh tonight, especially with a good matchup for their left-handed batters.
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction
Pick: Cubs -114
Shota Imanaga and Hunter Greene are the listed starters here. It could be a “grin and bear it” type start for Imanaga, who has a massive home run problem and is going to Great American Ball Park on a warm night, but I’m willing to take the chance here.
Greene got blasted in his first start back from injury, as the Orioles roughed him up for eight runs on seven hits. He struck out seven of the 20 batters he faced, but also walked four of them. We saw flashes of what he is and has been, but he also gave up a lot of hard contact when balls were put into play.
He mowed through minor leaguers in three rehab starts, including 6.1 innings in his final one, so maybe he was ready, but his command did not look MLB-ready against Baltimore and now he draws a Cubs offense that is definitely better.
Also, qualitatively, I feel like the Cubs will be more locked in this weekend. As a veteran team with actual playoff prospects, they should be more motivated and focused, whereas the Reds, who are well off the pace in the playoff picture, may just be looking ahead to some downtime, especially since they started well and have played so poorly for the last two months.
Blue Jays vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Padres -125
California kid Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Blue Jays and the Padres will counter with journeyman southpaw JP Sears as interleague play brings these two teams together to finish the first half.
Bieber has not been the pitcher you would expect in his return from elbow issues, as he’s allowed a 54.2% Hard Hit% and eight Barrels in his three starts against Houston, Texas, and Seattle. He’s given up 13 runs on 20 hits in 13 innings with a 9/7 K/BB ratio and six homers, leading to a 9.00 ERA with a 13.41 xERA and a 9.34 FIP. This is definitely a friendly park, but he just pitched in a friendly park in Seattle and got bombed for seven runs.
Sears has made three starts with the Padres and two of them have been good. He was bad on a tough day to pitch at Wrigley Field on June 30, but he held the Braves to two runs on five hits in his only Petco Park start and then worked five shutout, one-hit innings against the Dodgers last time out. He’s not an overpowering guy and the stuff is mid, but the Blue Jays have had all sorts of offensive issues this season.
Also, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, and the entirety of the Padres pen is available today. Given that neither starter projects to work super deep into the game, a battle of the bullpens should favor San Diego.
