The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 22-4 (+15.52 units) in his last 26 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-131 at MIL)

Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 36-14 (72%, +23.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 47.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs MIN)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 138-178 for -37.26 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+109 vs NYM)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 73-52 start for +2.84 units and an ROI of +2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-131 at AZ)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 22-31 for -12.01 units and an ROI of -22.7%!
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 vs CHC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 74-52 start for -3.03 units and an ROI of -2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-163 vs LAA), BOSTON (-136 vs TB), CLEVELAND (-149 vs MIN), ATLANTA (+102 at LAD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 37-47 for +7.02 units.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+179 at PHI)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 17-8 for -1.64 units. Over the last three-and-a-half weeks, this angle has lost -7.02 units and is trending normally again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-219 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 70-86 for -8.55 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+113 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (+113 at BOS), DETROIT (+123 at KC), TEXAS (+113 vs CHC), PITTSBURGH (-105 at SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 42-50 start for -1.77 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 20-25 for -3.04 units and an ROI of-6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA ANGELS (+135 at TOR), WASHINGTON (+119 at MIA)
3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 461-370 for +36.21 units and an ROI of 4.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 224-167 for +20.14 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NY YANKEES at MIL (-131 CURRENTLY)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 138-178 for -37.26 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+109 vs NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 389-332 but for -81.04 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-136 vs HOU), BALTIMORE (-136 vs ATH), TORONTO (-163 vs LAA), CLEVELAND (-143 vs MIN), LA DODGERS (-122 vs ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 413-359 record for +50.80 units and an ROI of 6.6% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+135 at TOR), NY YANKEES (-131 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+119 at MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX), ATHLETICS (+113 at BAL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2041-1932 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.10 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, ATHLETICS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,044-2,618 (43.8%) for -274.45 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, ATLANTA, DETROIT, NY METS, ST LOUIS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4137-3592 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.06 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 616-509 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.42 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 91-136 SU (-23.86 units, ROI: -10.5%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+119 at MIA)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 74-43 SU for +15.53 units (ROI: 13.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-131 at AZ)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 498-571 SU but for +67.95 units (ROI: 6.4%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 168-185 SU for +34.18 units in the last 353 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+113 at CIN), DETROIT (+123 at KC), MINNESOTA (+119 at CLE), ATLANTA (+102 at LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-24 (+7.91 units, ROI: 18.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 97-180 (-62.64 units, ROI: -22.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-136 vs HOU)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 288-300 run (+10.24 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-163 vs LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 158-150 (-52.87 units, ROI: -17.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #12:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 43-24 (+20.44 units, ROI: 30.5%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 at TEX)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -149 (+18 diff), SEATTLE -136 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CHC-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.7), NYM-AZ OVER 8 (+0.6), PIT-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATH-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-1.0)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(953) WASHINGTON (18-20) at (954) MIAMI (17-21)
Trend: MIA is 1-9 (-9.28 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 vs WSH)

(957) ST LOUIS (22-15) at (958) SAN DIEGO (22-15)
Trend: STL is 18-12 (+10.00 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+123 at SD)

(959) ATLANTA (26-12) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (23-14)
Trend: ATL is 21-7 (+11.40 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+102 at LAD)

(961) PITTSBURGH (21-17) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (14-23)
Trend: Under the total is 18-7 (+10.35 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-SF (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: SF is 22-9 (+14.24 units) against NL opponents with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 vs PIT)

(963) ATHLETICS (19-18) at (964) BALTIMORE (17-21)
Trend: BAL is 0-8 (-9.10 units) when facing LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-136 vs ATH)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (15-23) at (966) TORONTO (16-21)
Trend: Dylan Cease’s teams are 8-10 (-8.32 units) as home night favorites since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-163 vs LAA)

(967) TAMPA BAY (25-12) at (968) BOSTON (16-22)
Trend: TB is 9-1 (+8.72 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+113 at BOS)

(975) HOUSTON (15-23) at (976) CINCINNATI (20-18)
Trend: CIN is 26-15 (+7.76 units) at home with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-136 vs HOU)

(977) NEW YORK-AL (26-12) at (978) MILWAUKEE (19-16)
Trend: Max Fried’s teams are 22-4 (+15.52 units) in his last 26 starts vs NL Central opponents
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-131 at MIL)

(979) CHICAGO-NL (26-12) at (980) TEXAS (17-20)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3-2 (+6.70 units) in CHC road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 16-24 (40%, -14.85 units) in the last 40 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The ROI on this trend is -37.1%.
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-163 vs LAA)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: NY METS are 27-12 (69.2%, +12.38 units) in the last 39 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
– The ROI on this trend is 31.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-131 at AZ)

Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Thu 5/7-Sun 5/10
Trend: Home teams are 20-10 (66.7%, +6.89 units) in the last 30 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 23%
Trend Match(PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-149 vs STL)

Series #32: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 5/8-Sun 5/10
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 36-14 (72%, +23.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 47.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-149 vs MIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 am ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, May 12)

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