Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: BAL is 15-3 (+11.27 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-118 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-394 but for +99.75 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+119 at BOS)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 143-145 (-61.99 units, ROI: -21.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs PHI), ATLANTA (-156 at WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 39-21 start for +8.94 units and an ROI of +14.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-122 at LAA)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 8-13 for -6.15 units and an ROI of -29.3%.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-131 vs STL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 46-27 start for +4.93 units and an ROI of 6.8%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-143 vs DET)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 22-27 for +6.42 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 vs ATL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 17-11 but for -10.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 at COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to an 11-5 start for -1.19 units. The ROI on that is -7.4%
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-246 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 41-39 for +7.02 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+119 at BOS), CINCINNATI (+104 at TB)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, a RO! of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 22-26 start for -0.62 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. RO! on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 5-15 for -9.54 units and an ROI -47.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (+199 vs LAD)
3+ games – ST LOUIS (+109 at MIA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an RO! of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and these teams are 19-26 for -3.69 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-105 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (-102 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-105 at CHC)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 445-364 for +25.45 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+104 at TB), ST LOUIS (+109 at MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs PHI), ATLANTA (-156 at WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 215-162 for +17.37 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-118 at KC), TORONTO (-122 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-394 but for +99.75 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+119 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 136-173 for -34.25 units and an ROI of -11.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+102 vs TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 378-321 but for -77.21 units and an ROI of -11% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-126 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 405-347 record for +55.46 units and an ROI of 7.4% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+104 at TB), ST LOUIS (+109 at MIA), TORONTO (-122 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2017-1904 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-122 at LAA), COLORADO (+199 vs LAD)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2021-2576 (44%) for -254.00 units and a RO! of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-105 at CHC)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 4082-3545 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.91 units and a RO! of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-115 vs HOU), MIAMI (-131 vs STL), COLORADO (+199 vs LAD), SEATTLE (-149 vs ATH)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 86-130 SU (-23.12 units, ROI: -10.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+102 at TB), ST LOUIS (+109 at MIA)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 160-86 SU (+39.70 units, ROI: 16.1%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 at COL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 471-535 SU but for +71.68 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 160-174 SU for +35.87 units in the last 334 divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+123 at SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 71-145 skid (-41.90 units, ROI: -19.4%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-177 (-61.98 units, ROI: -22.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-102 vs BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5 games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 238-158 in their last 396 tries (+34.36 units, ROI: 8.7%)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+109 at MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 143-145 (-61.99 units, ROI: -21.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs PHI), ATLANTA (-156 at WSH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +102 (+35 diff), KANSAS CITY -102 (+27), COLORADO +199 (+26)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -156 (+24 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -115 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-WSH OVER 8 (+1.1), TOR-LAA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), PHI-CHC OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BAL-KC UNDER 9 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) ATLANTA (15-7) at (954) WASHINGTON (10-12)
Trend: WSH is 2-7 (-5.96 units) in home night games within line range -180 to +140 with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 vs ATL)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (8-13) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (12-9)
Trend: PHI is 13-27 (-12.35 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-105 at CHC)
Trend: Colin Rea has been good in the -120 to +135 line range (27-13 record, +15.35 units) in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 vs PHI)
(959) DETROIT (12-10) at (960) BOSTON (8-13)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 11-2 (+8.62 units) vs AL Central in day games in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-143 vs DET)
(963) BALTIMORE (10-12) at (964) KANSAS CITY (7-15)
Trend: BAL is 15-3 (+11.27 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against teams with a 47% or lower win pct in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-118 at KC)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #2: Toronto at LA Angels, Mon 4/20-Wed 4/22
Trend: Home teams are 15-22 (40.5%, -13.65 units) in the last 37 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays
– The RO! on this trend is -36.9%.
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+102 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-KC
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 21-16 (56.8%) +3.19 units, ROI: 8.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-156 at WSH)
