MLB Best Bets Today April 20
Ten games are on the betting board for April 20, with the annual Patriots Day game in Boston as the only early start. Even the Cubs play late tonight while hosting at Wrigley Field. Fourteen of today’s 20 listed starters will be making their fifth starts of the season, so sample sizes keep increasing and hopefully that will be beneficial for all of us bettors going forward.
It feels like it has been a long season already, but we’re not even a month into play yet. In terms of some of the bigger takeaways to this point, walks remain high, power remains low, and average fastball velocity is up once again. Based on contact quality and the other factors that play into the “x” stats per Statcast, the .323 xwOBA we have right now is the highest since 2020, which, of course, was a shortened season played only when the weather was pretty nice. Something to watch as the weather warms up, as the league currently has a .384 SLG with a .402 xSLG.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
That’s a lot of coverage and we’ll be doing it all season long. We’re happy to have you along for the ride.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 20:
Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays (-122, 8)
6:40 p.m. ET
The Reds may be atop the NL Central, but no team in baseball is a bigger regression candidate right now. Cincinnati is +4 in both Pythagorean Win/Loss and BaseRuns records, as they are 14-8 with a -8 run differential. So far, Cincy is 6-0 in one-run games and also has four more wins by two runs. The bullpen leads the league in ERA at 2.31, but is being carried by a .249 BABIP and an 80.4% LOB%. The relief corps is 14th in xERA, 10th in FIP, 22nd in xFIP, and 21st in SIERA.
This is the worst offense in baseball by wRC+, sitting 26% below league average while slashing just .202/.297/.326. Credit to the Reds for winning all of these close games and the start that they’ve gotten off to, but it really looks extremely unsustainable. Similarly, what Rhett Lowder is doing doesn’t seem to have much staying power. He’s got a 3.52 ERA with a 4.21 xERA and a 3.30 FIP over 23 innings with just a 16% K%. He’s only allowed one homer and that’s been a huge part of his success with a .218 BA against and a .254 BABIP against.
But, his xBA is .268 and his xwOBA of .331 is quite a bit higher than his wOBA of .273. Specifically, Lowder’s sinker, which accounts for 25 batted ball events, has a .345 xBA with a .539 xSLG, and a .401 xwOBA. His actual numbers? .179, .214, .211. He only has an 8.5% Whiff% on his sinker and that’s his most-used pitch. He’s over 55% fastballs. I just don’t see the home run prevention and the results to continue in this direction.
The Rays picked up Jesse Scholtens from the White Sox last season and he’s made two bulk appearances thus far, but it looks like he’ll get the start here. If he doesn’t and there’s an opener in play, that’s fine, too. Scholtens hasn’t allowed an earned run over his 9.2 innings this season at the MLB level or in five innings at the Triple-A level. The Rays unlocked some swing-and-miss upside with him last season at the ripple-A level and he had 12 strikeouts over 8.1 innings at the MLB level.
Also, since joining the Rays organization, he has had 145 batted ball events and a Hard Hit% of just 30.3%. When the Rays acquire somebody, I assume it’s for a pretty good reason and that seems to be the case here.
The Tampa Bay offense actually ranks 10th in wRC+, slashing .259/.331/.383 on the season, leading the Reds comfortably in all of those categories. They also put a lot more balls in play. I’m willing to lay it here.
Pick: Rays -122
Atlanta Braves (-156, 8) at Washington Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET
NL East rivals square off here as the Braves head to D.C. to take on the Nationals. It was a little bit of a late night for Atlanta after completing a sweep of the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, but getting in a little after 1 a.m. is hardly a stiff price to pay for how happy of a flight it was. The Atlanta offense is rolling, the pitching staff has navigated some choppy waters, and the bullpen has been great.
We’ll see if they can carry that offensive performance into this one against Jake Irvin. Despite a nice K% bump, Irvin has struggled this season, posting a 6.16 ERA with a 5.07 xERA and a 4.87 FIP in his 19 innings of work. He’s struck out 21 batters, but also walked 11 while allowing 13 runs on 17 hits. He’s allowed a 48.1% Hard Hit% and a 14.8% Barrel% thus far, so he’s given up a lot of hard contact and I don’t think his 16% IFFB% is all that sustainable. Not to mention, his Chase Rate is actually lower this season than it has been the past two seasons when he had K% marks of 20.3% and 15.8%. Call me a pessimist, but I doubt his 24.1% K% is here to stay.
Irvin’s Over K prop came through last start against the Pirates when I tipped that in the article, but it was a struggle and he saw some big Z-Contact% regression. Methinks we got lucky and caught him right before the other shoe was about to drop.
A big reason why the Braves are off to the start that they are is because Bryce Elder has been great. He has a 0.77 ERA with a 2.29 xERA, 2.74 FIP, and a 3.42 xFIP, as he looks like a completely different pitcher. That said, as much as I want to believe, an 89% LOB% is doing a ton of heavy lifting here and nothing is materially different about his Chase Rate or SwStr%. He has done a really good job of limiting hard contact and maybe that will dictate the level of negative regression that he experiences, but some has to be coming. He has the lowest Stuff+ of his career right now.
Only the Dodgers have been better than the Braves offensively against right-handed pitchers this season, as Atlanta is slashing .276/.343/.460 in that split. The Nationals are right around league average at .243/.320/.386, but they have a .276 BABIP, so things could be going a bit better. Speaking of balls in play, the Nationals have the second-lowest K% against RHP this season and the Braves have the third-lowest. It’ll be a chilly night at Nats Park, but we should get a lot of balls in play and chances for runs. The Nationals are also 25th in bullpen ERA and 29th in bullpen FIP.
Pick: Over 8 (-118)
Toronto Blue Jays (-120, 7.5) at Los Angeles Angels
9:38 p.m. ET
We’ve got a top-tier pitching matchup here with Dylan Cease and Reid Detmers. Both guys possess a ton of swing-and-miss upside, but can get a little bit erratic as well, so this game has a pretty wide variety of outcomes in my estimation.
But, my focus here is on Detmers and his Under 16.5 Outs Recorded prop. The Angels opted to push Detmers back a day after going seven innings at Yankee Stadium with nine strikeouts against zero walks. Detmers is 2-2 relative to this specific prop, alternating across his starts with 4.2, 6.2, 4.1, and 7.0 innings in four outings. He’s gone over 100 pitches once so far and it’s entirely possible that he could do that again here, especially with the extra day of rest.
However, there are a few stats that I like in this spot. The first is that the Blue Jays have the highest percentage of foul balls at 31.2%. While they are 30th in pitches per plate appearance because of their aggressiveness, Detmers has generated a good amount of swings and misses. The Jays battle from that point forward, as their 18.3% K% is the lowest in the league. Not only that, but they only have a 12% K% against LHP on the young year.
In those two starts where Detmers failed to get through five innings, he threw 95 and 92 pitches, respectively, so he’s still a guy who has a lot of deep counts and variable pitch efficiency. Maybe the Blue Jays put a lot of balls in play in early counts and that helps Detmers, but I think there’s a better chance that he goes Under 16.5 than Over.
Also, from more of a narrative standpoint, the Blue Jays hung an 8-spot on Ryne Nelson yesterday and snapped a losing streak in the process. Maybe they’ll be pressing a little bit less in this one.
Our OptaAI MLB Player Prop Projections have Detmers down for 16.3 outs.
Pick: Reid Detmers Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
