Today we kick off a new week with a loaded 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays (-190, 7.5)
The Royals (32-46) just took two of three against the Cardinals but failed to complete the sweep, dropping yesterday’s series finale 12-10 as +105 home dogs. Similarly, the Rays (43-31) just took two of three against the Nationals, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals hand the ball to righty Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.64 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow righty Drew Rasmussen (6-3, 2.59 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -170 home favorite and Kansas City a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Rays at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -170 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 88% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rays are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp one-way split in favor of the home chalk.
Monday favorites -175 or more, like the Rays here, are 16-5 (76%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Monday home teams with line movement in their favor who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 58-36 (62%) with an 8% ROI since 2024.
Tampa Bay offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Rasmussen has posted a 0.43 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 1 earned run in 21 innings pitched.
On the other hand, Wacha has posted a 5.30 ERA in three June starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. Kansas City is 0-7 in his last seven starts.
The Rays are 26-10 (72%) at home this season, the best home record in MLB. The Royals are 13-24 on the road, the 3rd worst road record in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins (-130, 8.5)
The Rangers (37-40) just took two of three against the Padres, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -165 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Marlins (40-38) just swept the Giants, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as +120 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rangers send out lefty Tyler Alexander (1-1, 2.97 ERA) and the Marlins go with righty Tyler Phillips (1-2, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -120 home favorite and Texas a +100 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Marlins laying short chalk at home, pushing Miami up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 72% of moneyline bets but 96% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Marlins here, are 78-52 (60%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 139-98 (59%) with a 6% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites off a win priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 80-43 (65%) with a 15% ROI since 2025.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -150 or less has gone 104-72 (59%) with a 6% ROI since 2024.
Phillips is 1-0 with a 0.83 ERA at home compared to 0-2 with a 6.86 ERA on the road.
Miami is 26-16 at home. Texas is 18-22 on the road.
6:45 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-125, 10)
The Phillies (42-35) just took two of three against the Mets, winning last night’s series finale 6-2 as -185 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Nationals (40-38) just dropped two of three against the Rays, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies are expected to start righty Alan Rangel (0-0. 3.00 ERA) and the Nationals will rebuttal with lefty Foster Griffin (7-2, 3.32 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -115 home favorite and Philadelphia a -105 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 59% of moneyline bets are taking the Phillies as a short road dog.
However, despite the public backing Philadelphia we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Nationals -115 to -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Washington, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are only receiving 41% of moneyline bets but 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the home chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 101-62 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
The Nationals are 20-17 (54%) with a 23% ROI off a loss this season, the 3rd most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Washington enjoys a “rest vs tired” edge, as the Nats played a day game yesterday while the Phillies played a late Sunday Night Baseball game.
The Nats have the better bats, hitting .246 with a .421 slug and 416 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .233 with a .396 slug and only 329 runs scored.
Griffin has posted a 1.59 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 17 innings pitched. Washington is 11-4 in his 15 starts thsi season. He is 6-0 with a 2.97 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, the Phillies are only hitting .224 against lefties this season, ranking 26th in MLB.
