Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 20, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 383-192 (66.6%) for +54.15 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-171 vs LAA)
Trend: WSH is 17-4 (+12.15 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at TB)
Since the start of the 2023 regular season, worse SM bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks have gone 333-372 for -39.44 units (ROI: -5.6%).
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-144 vs CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 127-103 for -6.46 units and an ROI of -2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-130 vs CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 24-21 for –2.89 units (ROI -6.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-218 at COL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 41-70 for -35.31 units and an ROI of -31.8%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs TOR)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 38-16 for +1.75 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-201 vs CIN), PITTSBURGH (-218 at COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-18 but for -11.53 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-248 vs BAL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 21-12 start for -5.73 units, and an ROI of -17.4%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-201 vs CIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 147-185 for -21.63 units. This ROI of -6.5% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+109 at TEX), NY METS (+159 at PHI), CLEVELAND (+119 at HOU), BOSTON (+105 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 126-77 for +34.39 units, an ROI of +16.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-125 vs WSH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 40-54 for -13.24 units and an ROI of -14.1%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-144 vs CLE)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,107-1.999 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -275.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, TEXAS, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, ATHLETICS, ARIZONA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2135-2714 (44%) for -275.43 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 383-192 (66.6%) for +54.15 units and an ROI of 9.4%!
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-171 vs LAA)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 63-37-5 (63%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 33-10 Over streak in the last 43).
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 100-147 SU (-24.85 units, ROI: -10.1%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+178 vs PIT)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 41-138 SU for -41.32 units (ROI: -23.1%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR BALTIMORE at LAD (+200 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 226-259 SU but for +48.14 units (ROI: 9.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+178 vs PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 164-164 (-66.56 units, ROI: -20.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-248 vs BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +178 (+21 diff), CINCINNATI +164 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI -143 (+21 diff), HOUSTON -144 (+17), SEATTLE -126 (+17)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CIN-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), CWS-DET UNDER 9 (-0.8), BOS-SEA UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MILWAUKEE (45-28) at (902) ATLANTA (47-27)
Trend: MIL is 15-7 (+9.15 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at ATL)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (34-41) at (906) PHILADELPHIA (40-35)
Trend: PHI is 27-2 (+23.13 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs NYM)
(907) PITTSBURGH (38-38) at (908) COLORADO (29-47)
Trend: Over the total is 30-20 (+8.00 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-COL (o/u at 10.5)
(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (30-47) at (914) ATHLETICS (38-38)
Trend: ATH is 13-21 (-10.46 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-1.5 vs LAA)
(917) CINCINNATI (35-39) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (46-28)
Trend: CIN is 9-4 (+8.19 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+164 at NYY)
Trend: OVER the total is 19-12-1 (+5.80 units) in CIN day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-NYY (o/u at 9.5)
(919) TORONTO (37-39) at (920) CHICAGO-NL (40-36)
Trend: TOR is 13-20 (-10.54 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+1.5 at CHC)
(921) SAN DIEGO (38-36) at (922) TEXAS (36-39)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 24-10 (+12.70 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+113 at TEX)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 30-13 (+17.04 units) in his L43 DAY game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-136 vs SD)
(923) WASHINGTON (39-37) at (924) TAMPA BAY (42-30)
Trend: WSH is 17-4 (+12.15 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): CHICAGO WHITE SOX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TORONTO, TEXAS, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-ATH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, June 22)
