MLB Best Bets Today June 18
Nine games are on the schedule for Thursday, including three early starts with getaway day games in Boston, Milwaukee, and Texas. The other six games start at 4:10 p.m. ET or later, so there’s still some time to dig into the data and get a good feel for what those games bring to the table.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 18:
Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
This is a getaway day game in definition, and Baltimore does fly down to LAX after this one, but Seattle stays home to host the Red Sox. So, I don’t think we get an instance of both teams just looking to get the game done and over with.
Shane Baz is a wild card every time he starts. He has a 4.06 ERA with a 4.72 xERA and a 4.01 FIP over his 82 innings of work across 14 starts. He only has an 18.9% K% to go with a 9.0% BB% and has allowed 4+ runs in six of his starts and just one run in four of them. Seattle has had it tough against righties recently and, unlike the Orioles vs. Woo, they didn’t see Baz during the last series.
That said, Baz has had a double-digit SwStr% in just one of his last nine starts and has given up a lot of hard contact lately. He’s had two of his four lowest Stuff+ game logs in the month of June and has had two of his three lowest Pitching+ numbers this month as well. He only struck out one batter last time out against the Padres and three in the start prior to that against Toronto. If the Mariners aren’t striking out, they are a far more dangerous offense.
Woo just faced the Orioles and allowed seven runs, pushing his ERA up to 4.28. His advanced numbers and run estimators are strong, but he’s allowed 12 runs in his last two starts and 16 over his last four. Three of those four starts were on the road and that’s the worry here given that he threw seven shutout innings at home in between. But, the O’s did just see him and have a 116 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days.
The roof will be open today with perfect conditions and that could help the ball carry a bit more as well.
Cardinals vs. Royals Prediction
Pick: Cardinals -105
In what is more or less a toss-up game, the Cardinals and Royals battle it out for Missouri bragging rights. Southpaws Matthew Liberatore and Noah Cameron will be on the bump for their respective teams here.
We’ll see if Liberatore catches a break with Maikel Garcia out of the lineup, one of KC’s better hitters against lefties over the years. He needs some help with a 4.71 ERA, 5.47 xERA, and a 4.98 FIP this season in 70.2 innings of work. The long ball has really hurt Liberatore, as his 4.15 xFIP suggests. He’s allowed a 16.9% HR/FB% with 14 HR in 14 starts.
The base line for Liberatore is a bit concerning, as he’s allowed at least three runs in five of his last six starts. The Royals don’t hit for a lot of power, though, so maybe this will be a more favorable matchup. Over the last 14 days, the Royals are 23rd in SLG and the same over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 10th in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA against LHP over the last 30 days and even better if we look at the last two weeks. Cameron’s advanced metrics paint a prettier picture than what we’ve seen thus far out of him, as he has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.20 xERA and then a 3.48 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. A 66.4% LOB% is a big culprit this season.
He has been objectively better than Liberatore this season, but the Cardinals lineup has also been objectively better than Kansas City’s. The Cardinals have also had the better bullpen. This game could very well come down to the bullpens and I’m okay with holding the better offense and better relief corps at a small underdog price.
