Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 164-87 SU (+42.09 units, ROI: 16.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE), LA ANGELS (-119 vs ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 377-414 but for +96.79 units and an ROI of 12.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+123 at NYY)
Trend: NYM is 6-12 (-7.17 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-112 at WSH)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 89-68 start for -0.97 units and an ROI of -0.6%.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-122 at STL)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 10-10 for -1.96 units and an ROI of -9.8%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): LA ANGELS (-119 vs ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 105-73 start for -3.80 units and an ROI of -2.1%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-143 at MIA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 54-65 for +9.31 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+169 at AZ)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 22-10 for -1.45 units and an ROI of -4.5%.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-207 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 13-7 start for -3.03 units. The ROI on that is -15.2%.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-207 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 95-107 for -1.06 units. However, it did get back +9.59 units since the start of last week alone.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-101 at DET), ATHLETICS (-101 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 57-72 start for -8.41 units (ROI -6.5%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-108 vs NYM)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 48-58 for -4.59 units.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 465-374 for +35.54 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-207 vs COL)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 431-452 but for +31.23 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 377-414 but for +96.79 units and an ROI of 12.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+123 at NYY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 448-427 (51.2%) for +22.88 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-101 vs PIT), MIAMI (+119 vs ATL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2078-2650 (44%) for -270.87 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+123 at NYY)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 628-517 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.82 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE), MIAMI (+119 vs ATL)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 164-87 SU (+42.09 units, ROI: 16.8%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE), LA ANGELS (-119 vs ATH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 294-305 run (+11.72 units, ROI: 2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 184-153 (+8.77 units, ROI: 2.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-101 at DET)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: NY YANKEES -149 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NYM-WSH OVER 7.5 (+1.5), PIT-STL OVER 7 (+1.0), CLE-DET OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: COL-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-1.0)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) NEW YORK-NL (21-28) at (904) WASHINGTON (25-25)
Trend: NYM is 6-12 (-7.17 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-112 at WSH)
Trend: WSH is 13-3 (+9.15 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs NYM)
Trend: Over the total is 26-14-4 (+10.60 units) when WSH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-WSH (o/u at 7.5)
(909) CLEVELAND (29-22) at (910) DETROIT (20-30)
Trend: DET is 18-9 (+8.54 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-120 vs CLE)
Trend: DET is 11-4 (+6.80 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs CLE)
(911) TORONTO (22-27) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (30-20)
Trend: TOR is just 9-16 (-9.64 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+123 at NYY)
(913) ATHLETICS (25-24) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (17-33)
Trend: Luis Severino is 19-41 (-18.22 units) as an underdog in last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-101 at LAA)
Top Head-to-Head Series Trends
Series #19: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, Mon 5/18-Thu 5/21
Trend: Favorites are just 30-46 (39.5%, -35.19 units) in the last 76 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -46.3%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-149 vs TOR)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 7-19 (26.9%) -12.69 units, ROI: -48.8%
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-207 vs COL)
