Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
7:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-165, 8.5) at New York Mets
The Phillies (45-36) just took three out of four against the Nationals, winning yesterday’s series finale 10-5 as -180 road favorites. On the other hand, the Mets (34-47) just got swept by the Cubs, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-3 in extra innings as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Zack Wheeler (7-1, 2.11 ERA) and the Mets are expected to counter with rookie lefty Zach Thornton (0-1, 8.31 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -155 road favorite and New York a +135 home dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Phillies on the road, driving Philadelphia up from -155 to -165.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable one-way Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Friday night favorites, like the Phillies here, are 91-51 (64%) with a 9% ROI this season. If they are also receiving line movement in their favor, Friday night favorites improve to 60-30 (67%) with a 12% ROI this season.
The Phillies have the better bats, posting a .402 slugging percentage with 359 runs scored compared to the Mets posting a .377 slugging percentage with 328 runs scored.
Wheeler has posted a 1.82 ERA in four June starts, giving up only 5 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 9-2 in his 11 starts this season.
The Phillies are 22-17 on the road. The Mets are 18-22 at home.
New York is 8-19 (30%) as a dog this season, the worst dog record in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 8.5)
The Diamondbacks (41-39) just took two of three against the Cardinals, winning the series finale 9-4 as +100 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rays (45-33) just split a four-game series against the Royals, winning the series finale 13-2 as -150 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Diamondbacks send out righty Zac Gallen (3-6, 6.10 ERA) and the Rays turn to fellow righty Nick Martinez (6-2, 2.73 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -125 home favorite and Arizona a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Rays laying modest chalk at home, driving Tampa Bay up from -125 to -135 or even -140 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Rays are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tampa Bay is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their favor is 108-66 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Friday home favorites priced -150 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Rays tonight, are 28-14 (67%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Interleague home favorite off a win priced -150 or less with line movement in their direction are 80-45 (64%) with a 14% ROI this season.
The Rays have the superior offense, hitting .258 with a .336 OBP compared to the Diamondbacks hitting .239 with a .310 OBP.
Tampa Bay is 11-4 in Martinez’s 15 starts this season.
Meanwhile, Gallen has posted an 8.85 ERA in four June starts, giving up 20 earned runs in 20.1 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 in his last 11 starts. He is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA on the road and 2-4 with a 7.40 ERA in night games.
The Rays are 28-12 (70%) at home, the best home record in MLB. The Diamondbacks are 17-22 on the road.
7:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8.5)
The Royals (34-48) just split a four-game series with the Rays, losing the series finale 13-2 as +125 road dogs. On the other hand, the White Sox (41-38) just took two of three against the Guardians but failed to complete the sweep, dropping the series finale 4-3 in extra innings as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Royals are expected to start righty Mitch Spence (0-1, 13.50 ERA) and the White Sox rebuttal with fellow righty David Sandlin (1-1, 8.10 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -125 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog.
Wiseguys have gotten down on the South Siders laying short chalk at home, driving Chicago up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the White Sox are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp Pro and Joe split in their favor.
Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the White Sox here, are 142-103 (58%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Chicago also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the White Sox were off yesterday and continue a homestand while the Royals played the Rays yesterday and now must travel to Chicago.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off facing a team who played the previous day are 24-10 (71%) with a 20% ROI this season.
Rested home favorites coming off a day off who failed to make the playoffs the previous season and are taking in at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 61-30 (67%) with an 11% ROI since 2025.
The White Sox are 5-2 against the Royals this season.
Chicago is 26-13 at home (67%), the 2nd best home record in MLB. The Royals are 15-26 on the road, the 4th worst road record in MLB.
