Today we begin a new week with a smaller than usual 9-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
Top MLB Resources:
7:10 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-140, 8.5) at New York Mets
The Braves (35-41) just dropped two of three against the Marlins, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-3 as -160 road favorites. Similarly, the Mets (46-32) just lost two of three against the Phillies, falling 7-1 last night as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves send out righty Spencer Schwellenbach (5-4, 3.26 ERA) and the Mets go with fellow righty Paul Blackburn (0-1, 6.92 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -125 road favorite and New York a +105 home dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this split moneyline ticket count at DraftKings we’ve the Braves jump up from -125 to -140.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 15-cent move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the road chalk Braves.
At DraftKings, Atlanta is taking in 51% of moneyline bets but 69% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. At Circa, the Braves are receiving 75% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the wiseguy wagers in Vegas also supporting Atlanta.
Road favorites off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 68-39 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The Braves have played far better recently, going 7-3 in their last ten games and hitting .254 with a 3.13 ERA. Meanwhile, the Mets are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .220 with a 5.95 ERA.
Atlanta is 6-2 in Schwellenbach’s last eight starts.
The Braves are 3-0 against the Mets this season.
The Mets are also in a classic “fade” schedule spot, playing a late Sunday Night Baseball game on the road last night and then having to travel back home.
7:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-140, 9) at Chicago White Sox
The Diamondbacks (39-38) just took two of three against the Rockies but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-2 as -175 road favorites. On the other hand, the White Sox (25-53) just won two of three against the Blue Jays, winning 4-2 yesterday as +165 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Diamondbacks hand the ball to lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (2-4, 5.93 ERA) and the White Sox counter with righty Shane Smith (3-4, 2.85 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -130 road favorite and Chicago a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Snakes laying modest road chalk, steaming Arizona up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Arizona is taking in 86% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of a Snakes road victory.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 101-61 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season. Sweet spot non-division road favorites -135 to -160 are 43-23 (65%) with a 10% ROI. Favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 46-22 (68%) with a 4% ROI.
The Diamondbacks have a notable edge at the plate, hitting .255 with 110 homers and 396 runs scored compared to the White Sox only hitting .221 with 60 homers and 272 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .251 on the road (7th best in MLB) and .258 against righties (4th). The White Sox are hitting .224 at home (27th) and .233 against lefties (17th).
The Diamondbacks are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .260. The White Sox are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .212.
Rodriguez has a 2.81 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 16 innings pitched.
7:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-130, 8.5) at Minnesota Twins
The Mariners (39-37) just won two of three against the Cubs, dominating 14-6 yesterday and taking care of business as -130 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Twins (37-40) just got swept by the Brewers, losing 9-8 yesterday as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mariners send out righty Bryan Woo (6-4, 3.12 ERA) and the Twins go with fellow righty Bailey Ober (4-4, 4.54 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -115 road favorite and Minnesota a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Mariners laying a short chalk price, steaming Seattle up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, a notable Pro and Joe bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers in the desert backing the road team.
Monday teams off a win with line movement in their favor are 37-20 (65%) with a 17% ROI this season.
Seattle has the more explosive bats, hitting 101 homers and scoring 347 runs compared to Minnesota hitting 86 homers and scoring 328 runs.
Woo has given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his 14 starts this season. Conversely, Ober has an 8.31 ERA in three June starts, giving up 16 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched. Minnesota is 0-5 in his last five starts.
The Mariners have played far better as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games and hitting .289 with a 3.58 ERA. On the other hand, the Twins are 1-9 over their last ten games and hitting only .240 with a 7.97 ERA.
