Today we kick off a new week with a loaded 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:35 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-140, 9)
The White Sox (43-39) just took two of three against the Royals but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 5-4 as -135 home favorites. On the other hand, the Orioles (39-46) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, losing yesterday’s series finale 6-4 as -205 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the White Sox trot out righty Sean Burke (5-4, 3.71 ERA) and the Orioles tap fellow righty Shane Baz (4-8, 4.31 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -130 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Orioles to take the opener at home, steaming Baltimore up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” split indicating ever-so-slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Home favorites -140 or less, like the Orioles here, are 232-176 (57%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 100-62 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Fishy buy-low below .500 home favorites with line movement in their favor facing a sell-high above .500 team are 50-26 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Baltimore is 23-21 at home. Chicago is 15-25 on the road, the 5th worst road record in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians (-145, 7.5)
The Rangers (42-42) just swept the Blue Jays, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Guardians (44-40) just took two of three against the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-5 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers hand the ball to lefty Tyler Alexander (1-1, 2.62 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow southpaw Parker Messick (7-4, 2.67 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -135 home favorite and Texas a +115 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying modest chalk at home, driving Cleveland up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 63% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less, like the Guardians here, are 83-56 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. Monday favorites in the opening game of a new series receiving line movement in their favor are 54-34 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season.
Cleveland offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians are 10-6 in Messick’s 16 starts this season. He has posted a 2.24 ERA in night games compared to 3.44 in day games.
Cleveland is 21-18 at home. Texas is 23-24 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros (-135, 9)
The Twins (40-45) just took two of three against the Rockies, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-2 as -170 home favorites. Similarly, the Astros (42-44) just won two of three against the Tigers, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-5 in extra innings as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins send out righty Zebby Matthews (3-5, 4.56 ERA) and the Astros tap fellow righty Peter Lambert (6-4, 3.28 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -125 home favorite and Minnesota a +105 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Astros laying short chalk at home, pushing Houston up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Astros are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” one-way split in their favor.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Astros here, are 100-62 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
When both teams are below .500, the home favorites priced -140 or less is 66-44 (60%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Lambert has posted a 2.31 ERA in four June starts (3 of them wins), allowing only 6 earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Matthews has posted a 4.50 ERA in four June starts, giving up 13 earned runs in 26 innings pitched. He has a 7.33 ERA on the road compared to 2.08 at home.
