Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 29, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 239-179 for +20.69 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-114 at ATH)
Trend: WSH is 31-12 (+14.96 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at BOS)
* NY METS letdown in follow-up game after divisional series vs. Philadelphia: 12-24 record (33.3%) for -19.09 units, ROI: -53%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+105 at TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The 2-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have struggled lately, now at 137-114 for -11.30 units and an ROI of -4.5%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-175 vs WSH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 26-23 for –5.53 units (ROI -11.3%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-108 at PHI)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 44-75 for -33.77 units and an ROI of -28.4%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+170 at SEA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 92-116 start for +4.05 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost 5.78 units the last three weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+144 at BOS), COLORADO (+119 vs MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 164-212 for -30.03 units. This ROI of -8% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 at BAL), NY METS (+105 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+170 at SEA)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 137-90 for +29.92 units, an ROI of +13.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 vs PIT), LA DODGERS (-114 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 103-129 start for -21.00 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 46-61 for -15.03 units and an ROI -14%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+144 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs SD), SAN FRANCISCO (+119 at AZ)
3+ games – TEXAS (+124 at CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 81-83 for +8.72 units.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-126 vs NYM)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 490-392 for +41.16 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+124 at CLE), BOSTON (-175 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 239-179 for +20.69 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-114 at ATH)
*WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH at PHI (-108 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 424-357 but for -80.49 units and an ROI of -10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-112 vs PIT), NY YANKEES (-136 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs SD), HOUSTON (-142 vs MIN), ARIZONA (-144 vs SF)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 442-394 record for +42.62 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-108 at PHI), WASHINGTON (+144 at BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2127-2011 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -268.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-108 at PHI)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,159-2,735 (44.1%) for -272.59 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-144 at COL), SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 648-538 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.90 units, for an ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-136 vs DET), ATHLETICS (-105 vs LAD)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 103-150 SU (-23.23 units, ROI: -9.2%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (+124 at CLE)
*WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs PIT (-112 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 228-261 SU but for +49.33 units (ROI: 10.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC), COLORADO (+119 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 307-315 run (+13.36 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-126 vs NYM), NY YANKEES (-136 vs DET)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: LA DODGERS -114 (+35 diff), HOUSTON -142 (+25), MIAMI -144 (+23), NY YANKEES -136 (+19), MILWAUKEE -145 (+19), PHILADELPHIA -112 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.2), WSH-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), SD-CHC OVER 11 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CWS-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), NYM-TOR UNDER 9 (-0.7), DET-NYY UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) CINCINNATI (39-43) at (954) MILWAUKEE (50-31)
Trend: CIN is 4-2 vs Milwaukee (+3.03 units) with starter Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+120 at MIL)
(955) SAN DIEGO (43-39) at (956) CHICAGO-NL (46-38)
Trend: CHC is 36-16 (+13.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs SD)
(959) SAN FRANCISCO (35-48) at (960) ARIZONA (41-42)
Trend: Eduardo Rodriguez’s teams have a 5-1 record when he starts vs SF in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-144 vs SF)
(963) DETROIT (35-49) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (48-35)
Trend: DET is 12-28 (-18.71 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+113 at NYY)
(965) TEXAS (42-42) at (966) CLEVELAND (44-40)
Trend: TEX is 20-27 (-11.11 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at CLE)
(967) MINNESOTA (40-45) at (968) HOUSTON (42-44)
Trend: Over the total is 30-13-4 (+15.70 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 9)
(969) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-49) at (970) SEATTLE (42-43)
Trend: Under the total is 35-22 (+10.80 units) in LAA night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
(971) NEW YORK-NL (35-49) at (972) TORONTO (39-45)
Trend: Over the total is 4-0-2 when starter Sean Manaea faces TOR in his career
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYM-TOR (o/u at 9)
(973) WASHINGTON (43-42) at (974) BOSTON (36-46)
Trend: WSH is 31-12 (+14.96 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at BOS)
Trend: Ranger Suarez’s teams are 8-13 (-15.78 units) when he starts as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-175 vs WSH)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, BOSTON, ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-ATH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-24 (33.3%) -19.09 units, ROI: -53%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+105 at TOR)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 21-18 (53.8%) -10.17 units, ROI: -26.1%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-136 vs DET)
ATHLETICS
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 14-23 (37.8%) -12.40 units, ROI: -33.5%
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-105 vs LAD)
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 18-19 (48.6%) -5.15 units, ROI: -13.9%
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-112 vs PIT)
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 19-21 (47.5%) -10.75 units, ROI: -26.9%
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+130 at CHC)
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