Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 8 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8)
The Yankees (38-26) just split an abbreviated two-game series with the Red Sox, winning 6-1 yesterday as -150 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (37-30) just dropped two of three against the Rangers, losing 10-0 yesterday as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Will Warren (7-1, 3.22 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Gavin Williams (9-3, 3.20 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and New York a -105 road dog.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 58% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are backing New York.
However, despite the Yankees receiving a majority of tickets we’ve seen the line move further toward Cleveland -115 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Guardians, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
Short home favorites -140 or less, like the Guardians here, are 172-130 (57%) with a 3% ROI this season.
Sweet spot home favorites between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous year are 47-22 (68%) with a 20% ROI since 2025. Monday favorites off loss who made the playoffs the previous season are 20-11 (65%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Guardians are 19-10 (66%) with a 33% ROI off a loss this season, the most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Cleveland offers additional betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians are 10-3 in Williams’s 13 starts this season. He is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA at home.
9:38 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-130, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
The Astros (30-37) just took two of three against the Athletics but failed to complete the sweep, losing 5-0 yesterday as a -110 home pick’em. On the other hand, the Angels (25-41) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers but avoided the sweep, winning 13-5 yesterday as +210 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros send out righty Spencer Arrighetti (7-1, 1.94 ERA) and the Angels tap fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 9.50 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -120 road favorite and Los Angeles a +100 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Astros laying short chalk on the road, driving Houston up from -120 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Astros are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites are getting shut out in the previous game have gone 14-9 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season and 156-87 (64%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Houston has the better offense, hitting .246 with a .321 OBP, .413 slug and 307 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .233 with a .314 OBP, .388 slug and 291 runs scored.
The Astros are hitting .245 against righties (12th in MLB) compared to the Angels hitting .233 (24th).
Houston is 8-1 in Arrighetti’s nine starts this season. He is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez is 1-2 with a 12.46 ERA in three starts at home.
10:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 11) vs Athletics
This Interleague matchup will be played at Las Vegas Ballpark in Nevada, home of the Las Vegas Aviators of the Pacific Coast League.
The Brewers (40-23) just swept the Rockies, winning 12-4 yesterday as -185 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Athletics (31-34) just dropped two of three against the Astros but avoided the sweep, winning 5-0 yesterday as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers start lefty Kyle Harrison (7-1, 1.57 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with fellow southpaw Jeffrey Springs (3-6, 4.37 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -145 neutral site favorite and the Athletics a +125 neutral site dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brew Crew, pushing Milwaukee up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is receiving 89% of moneyline bets and a whopping 94% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brew Crew are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Beer Makers.
The Brewers offer betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .251 with a .339 OBP and 329 runs scored compared to the Athletics hitting .244 with a .324 OBP and 273 runs scored.
The Brewers are 8-0 in Harrison’s last eight starts and he has given up 1 earned run or less in seven of those last eight starts.
On the other hand, the A’s are 2-7 in Springs’s last nine starts.
Milwaukee has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.31 (7th best in MLB) compared to 4.46 for the A’s (21st).
The Brewers are 29-14 (67%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite, the 2nd most profitable chalk team in MLB.
