Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 9-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 7.5)
The Cubs (40-25) just dropped two of three against the Tigers, losing yesterday’s series finale 4-0 as +100 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Phillies (37-28) just got swept by the Pirates, losing 2-1 yesterday as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cubs hand the ball to lefty Matthew Boyd (5-3, 3.01 ERA) and the Phillies counter with righty Zack Wheeler (6-2, 2.96 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a +130 road dog.
The public is leaning slightly toward the Phillies at home. However, despite receiving 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -150 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Chicago as the line has moved in their direction (+130 to +110) despite receiving less than half the tickets.
Short road dogs +120 or less, like the Cubs here, are 57-53 (52%) since May 1st, producing a 7% ROI with +8 units won due to the plus money payouts.
Chicago has also gone 18-4 (82%) with a 48% ROI and +10.5 units won following a loss this season, the best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .259 with 88 homers and 363 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .250 with 68 homers and 297 runs scored. The Cubs are also hitting .271 on the road, the best road batting average in MLB.
Chicago has the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.39 compared to 4.54 for the Phillies, 6th worst in MLB.
Philadelphia is just 1-9 over their last ten games, hitting .189 with a 6.01 ERA. By comparison, Chicago is 6-4 hitting .241 with a 2.07 team ERA.
7:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-155, 7.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Braves (27-37) just got swept by the Giants, losing 4-3 yesterday as -135 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Brewers (35-31) just lost two of three against the Padres, falling 1-0 yesterday as -180 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Braves send out lefty Chris Sale (3-4, 2.93 ERA) and the Brewers go with righty Aaron Civale (1-1, 5.19 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -185 road favorite and Milwaukee a +160 home dog.
The public isn’t scared off by the expensive chalk and they’re backing the Braves with their ace on the mound.
However, despite receiving 64% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -185 to -155. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Brewers, as the line has moved in their favor (+160 to +130) despite being the unpopular play.
Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Brewers here, are 73-69 (51%) with a 12% ROI and +17 units won since May 1st.
The Braves are just 7-13 (35%) with a -41% ROI and -8.1 units won as a road favorite this season, the worst road favorite in MLB.
The Brewers have played far better as of late, going 7-3 over their last ten games hitting .262 with 2.80 team ERA compared to the Braves going 2-8 hitting .208 with a 4.17 team ERA.
Milwaukee is 19-12 at home this season. Atlanta is 10-23 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, 9.5)
The Mariners (33-31) just dropped two of three against the Angels but avoided the sweep with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -135 road favorites. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks (31-34) just got swept by the Reds, losing 4-2 yesterday as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Mariners tap righty Emerson Hancock (2-2, 5.19 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Merrill Kelly (6-2, 3.43 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -170 home favorite and Seattle a +140 road dog.
The public is hammering the Snakes at home. However, despite receiving 73% of moneyline bets at DraftKings the line hasn’t budged off the opening price.
Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise up from -170 to -180 or more. The fact that this line hasn’t moved despite heavy Arizona betting signals a sharp line freeze in favor of the road dog Mariners.
At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing Seattle out in Vegas.
Road dogs, like the Mariners here, are 145-169 (46%) since May 1st but have produced an 8% ROI with +24.5 units won due to the plus money payouts. If they are also coming off a win, they improve to 74-74 (50%) with a 15% ROI and +22 units won.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Arizona is just 12-14 (46%) with a -25% ROI as a home favorite this season.
On the other hand, Seattle is 13-8 (62%) with a 36% ROI as a dog, the second best dog team in MLB.
