Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 14 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs (-130, 9)
The Cubs (40-36) dominated yesterday’s Interleague series opener 16-2, easily cashing as -125 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Blue Jays (37-39) hand the ball to lefty Patrick Corbin (2-3, 4.57 ERA) and the Cubs turn to righty Colin Rea (5-5, 5.35 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +100 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Cubs laying short chalk at Wrigley, driving Chicago up from -120 to -130.
At Circa, the Cubs are only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 68% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Saturday home favorites receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Cubs here, are 36-18 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Interleague home favorites off a win priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 80-41 (66%) with a 17% ROI since 2025. Sweet spot home favorites priced between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 51-23 (69%) with a 22% ROI since 2025.
Chicago has the more productive bats, posting a .336 OBP, .402 slug and 360 runs scored compared to Toronto posting a .312 OBP, .391 slug and 308 runs scored.
Rea has posted a 3.03 ERA at home compared to 7.19 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Corbin has posted an 8.49 ERA in three June starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched.
The Cubs are 23-16 at home. The Blue Jays are 16-21 on the road.
4:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 8)
The Rays (42-30) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-2, coming through as -155 home favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Nationals (39-37) send out righty Cade Cavalli (4-4, 3.98 ERA) and the Rays turn to lefty Ian Seymour (3-0, 4.93 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 home favorite and Washington a +100 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays to earn another win at home, pushing Tampa Bay up from -120 to -125.
At Circa, the Rays are only taking in 40% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement has gone 99-60 (62%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 77-49 (61%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 135-94 (59%) with a 7% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites off a win priced -150 or less receiving line movement in their favor are 80-41 (66%) with a 17% ROI since 2025.
Cavalli has posted a 4.28 ERA on the road compared to 3.73 at home. Washington is 4-10 in his last 14 starts.
Meanwhile, Seymour has posted a 2.95 ERA at home compared to 7.41 on the road.
The Rays are 25-9 (74%) at home, the best home record in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-190, 7.5)
The Mets (34-41) took Thursday’s series opener 6-4, coming through as +105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets tap righty Freddy Peralta (5-5, 3.90 ERA) and the Phillies (40-35) counter with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (8-3, 1.82 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -180 home favorite and New York a +150 road dogs.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies at home with their ace on the mound, steaming Philadelphia up from -180 to -190.
At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
Saturday home favorites receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Phillies here, are 36-18 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Home favorites with line movement in their favor after losing the series opener have gone 16-9 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 50-27 (65%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Philadelphia enjoys correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Sanchez is 5-1 with a 0.90 ERA at home this season.
The Phillies are 21-19 at home. The Mets are 16-23 on the road.
