MLB Best Bets Today June 20
We’ve got a busy Saturday on the diamond with all 30 teams in action. Three games start early, four games start in the 4 p.m. ET hour, and the rest of the schedule is later, so the games are spread out nicely for those looking for all-day baseball or those who only have the time to handicap parts of the card.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 20:
Guardians vs. Astros Prediction
Pick: Astros -1.5 (+142)
It usually isn’t my style to take a home team on the run line, given that they have one fewer trip to the plate if they have a lead and close out the game in the top of the ninth, but the Guardians are a mess right now and this is not a good pitching matchup for them at all.
Joey Cantillo was solid last time out against the Tigers, but he had allowed 15 runs in 11 innings in his three starts prior to that. If we look at his last nine starts dating back to May 1, Cantillo has a 5.40 ERA with a 4.71 xERA and a 5.35 FIP, allowing 23 walks in just 41.2 innings. His K% has dropped from early in the season, while his BB% has spiked.
What makes this spot worse for Cantillo is that righties own a .267/.358/.460 slash against him, as they’ve hit nine of the 11 homers he has allowed and have also added 12 doubles. He’s also sporting a 4.93 ERA in 38.1 innings of work on the road with a .279/.363/.497 slash and a .374 wOBA against. As I’ve mentioned before, Stephen Vogt will not use his best relief arms when trailing, so there’s a good chance that the lackluster relievers are called into action here. Cantillo throws a ton of pitches with lots of walks and foul balls that run up his pitch count. Also, while he’s allowed a .304 wOBA the first time through, he’s allowed a .365 wOBA the second time through and a .430 wOBA the third time through. Vogt is keenly aware of the times through the order (TTO) penalty with all of his starters, especially Cantillo.
The Regression Monster has found Spencer Arrighetti, who has a 2.57 ERA with a 4.54 xERA and a 3.81 FIP, as he’s allowed 11 runs in his last three starts over 16 innings of work. He’s still limiting hard contact really well, but he’s posted LOB% marks of 60.6%, 66.7%, and 55.6% in those three starts, which makes sense because he was carrying an 89.3% LOB% prior to that and it is completely unsustainable.
Lefties own just a .188/.349/.222 slash against Arrighetti, as he has walked 23 of 146 left-handed batters, but he hasn’t allowed a homer and hasn’t allowed much hard contact at all. Cleveland will stick to their platoon splits in almost every matchup and today is probably included.
Without Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter, and even Angel Martinez to some degree, this lineup is even worse than usual. Arrighetti has allowed just a .153/.273/.259 slash at home. This should be another easy Astros win.
If you are scared of the -1.5, you can take the Astros at -1 (-103) for some push protection in case this is a 4-3 or 5-4 win or something.
Twins vs. Diamondbacks Prediction
Pick: Over 9 (-117)
Taj Bradley has not been the same since returning from the IL about a month ago. The 25-year-old right-hander was one of the biggest surprises of the early part of the season, but it has been ugly lately. In five starts back, Bradley has a 6.57 ERA with a 5.21 xERA and a 5.57 FIP over 24.2 innings. He’s allowed 18 runs on 27 hits and, while he does have 28 strikeouts, he also has 13 walks.
Bradley has allowed a 53.5% Hard Hit% and an 11.3% Barrel%. His SwStr% in that span is down to 10.8% and it’s been just 5.6% and 8.9% in his last two starts against the Tigers and Cardinals. I’m not sure if he’s still battling through an injury or not, but the stuff and command have not been very strong.
It has been another poor season for Zac Gallen. The 30-year-old righty was very good from 2019-24, but posted a 4.83 ERA with a 4.28 xERA and a 4.50 FIP last season in what seemed to be the beginning of the end for him as a reliable starter. He has a 5.35 ERA this season with a 5.67 xERA and a 5.04 FIP over his 15 starts. Gallen’s K% is down to 14.8% and he continues to allow too much hard contact and too many Barrels.
The Twins are fifth in wOBA at .381 against righties over the last two weeks and only have a 17.8% K% in that span of 321 PA. They’re likely to run six lefties at Gallen today and that’s a problem for him. He’s allowed a .318/.375/.490 slash with a .376 wOBA to lefties and has only struck out 11.4% of them thus far.
The Diamondbacks are a bottom-five offense against RHP over the last two weeks, but their .249 BABIP is the second-lowest mark in the league in that span. Their 10.6% BB% has helped them to 18th in OBP, but they are really lagging in the BA and SLG departments because of some bad batted ball luck. There should be a correction coming soon.
Over the last 30 days, these are two below average bullpens, as the Diamondbacks have a really low K% and a 4.77 xERA with a 4.83 FIP, while the Twins have a 4.41 xERA and a 4.83 FIP.
