Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-130, 9)
The Phillies (46-36) took last night’s series opener 2-1, hanging on as -160 road favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Phillies start righty Alan Rangel (0-0, 2.25 ERA) and the Mets (34-48) rebuttal with fellow righty Christian Scott (2-0, 3.10 ERA), who is returning from the Injured List.
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite and Philadelphia a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies as a plus-money dog, dropping the line away from New York (-140 to -130) and toward Philadelphia (+120 to +110).
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 62% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Divisional dogs off a win, like the Phillies here, are 78-79 (50%) this season but have produced a 9% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Philadelphia offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Phillies have the better bats, posting a .401 slug with 361 runs scored compared to the Mets posting a .375 slug with 329 runs scored.
Philadelphia is 23-17 on the road, the 6th best road record in MLB. On the other hand, the Mets are 18-23 at home, the 5th worst home record in MLB.
The Phillies are also 18-8 (69%) as a road favorite, 4th best in MLB.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-165, 8)
The Brewers (50-29) won last night’s series opener 6-2, taking care of business as -260 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (44-38) hand the ball to newly acquired lefty David Peterson (3-6, 6.09 ERA) and the Brewers turn to fellow southpaw Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.50 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -155 home favorite and Chicago a +135 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the relatively hefty chalk and have laid the wood with the Brew Crew, driving Milwaukee up from -155 to -165.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 87% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Beer Makers are drawing 50% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Saturday home favorites receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor, like the Brewers here, are 38-21 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 111-66 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Harrison is 5-1 with a 1.29 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Peterson has posted a 10.97 ERA in three June appearances with the Mets, giving up 13 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched (all losses).
The Brewers are 26-15 (63%) at home, the 4th best home record in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals (-140, 8.5)
The Marlins (43-39) took last night’s series opener 4-0, cashing as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Marlins send out righty Ryan Gusto (0-2, 6.00 ERA) and the Cardinals go with fellow righty Andre Pallante (9-4, 3.59 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 home favorite and Miami a +115 road dog.
Sharps have sided with the Cardinals to bounce back with a win laying modest chalk at home, pushing St. Louis up from -135 to -140, with some shops touching as high as -145.
At Circa, St. Louis is raking in 60% of moneyline bets and a hefty 98% of moneyline dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 111-66 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
St. Louis offers additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Pallante has posted a 2.19 ERA in four June starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings pitched. St. Louis is 6-0 in his last six starts. He is 8-1 with a 3.05 ERA in night games.
On the other hand, Gusto has posted a 6.35 ERA in five June appearances, giving up 12 earned runs in 17 innings pitched.
The Cardinals are 22-20 at home. The Marlins are 15-22 on the road.
