Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 9) at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs (15-9) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-1 as -115 home favorites, winning the second game 7-4 as -130 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-2 as -195 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies (8-16) send out lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2-2, 1.59 ERA) and the Cubs go with righty Edward Cabrera (2-0, 2.38 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and Chicago a +110 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with Chicago to earn the sweep at a plus-money payout, as we’ve seen the line move away from the Phillies (-130 to -125) and toward the Cubs (+110 to +105).
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” one-way sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home dogs, like the Cubs here, are 61-62 (50%) this season but have produced a 10% ROI. Dogs off a win are 84-91 (48%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .259 with a .351 OBP and 131 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .220 with a .296 OBP and 82 runs scored.
Chicago is hitting .278 against lefties (4th best in MLB), while Philadelphia is hitting .244 against righties (15th).
Chicago is 10-5 at home. Philadelphia is 3-6 on the road.
3:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks (-155, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The White Sox (9-15) won the opener 11-5, coming through as +120 road dogs. Then the Diamondbacks (14-10) bounced back with an 11-7 win yesterday, taking care of business as -155 home favorites.
In this late afternoon series finale, the White Sox send out righty Davis Martin (3-1, 2.16 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Michael Soroka (4-0, 2.78 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -145 home favorite and Chicago a +125 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Snakes to earn a victory and take the series, driving Arizona up from -145 to -155, with some shops even creeping up to -160.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are taking in 78% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the Vegas pros.
Arizona has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Diamondbacks have the edge offensively, hitting .251 with 115 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .222 with 100 runs scored.
Soroka is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA at home this season. Arizona has an additional edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.50 compared to 5.75 for the White Sox (3rd worst in MLB).
The Diamondbacks are 8-4 at home this season. The White Sox are 6-9 on the road.
