Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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3:10 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-135, 12) at Colorado Rockies
The Marlins (46-41) have taken two of the first three games in this four-game series. Miami won the opener 10-7 as -155 road favorites and then won the second game 14-3 as -140 road favorites. Then the Rockies (34-55) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, cashing as +120 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Marlins hand the ball to righty Ryan Gusto (0-2, 5.06 ERA) and the Rockies counter with fellow righty Michael Lorenzen (3-9, 6.83 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -125 road favorite and Colorado a +105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Marlins laying short chalk on the road, steaming Miami up from -125 to -135 and even -140 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are taking in 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Miami is receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy, one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in favor of the road chalk.
The Marlins are 18-9 (67%) with a 15% ROI against teams with losing records, the 2nd best mark in MLB against below .500 teams.
Gusto has pitched well in his last two starts (both wins), giving up only 1 earned run in 7.2 innings pitched (1.25 ERA).
Meanwhile, Lorenzen is 1-4 with an 8.20 ERA at home this season.
The Marlins are 5-1 against the Rockies this season.
Miami is 23-15 in day games. Colorado is 9-18.
7:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-125, 10.5) at Kansas City Royals
The Rays (50-33) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 10-4 as -120 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 4-0 as -155 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Rays send out lefty Ian Seymour (4-1, 4.32 ERA) and the Royals (35-52) go with righty Stephen Kolek (4-2, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Kansas City a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Rays to complete the sweep laying short chalk, driving Tampa Bay up from -115 to -125.
At Circa, the Rays are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Tampa Bay is 28-15 (65%) with a 13% ROI against teams with a losing record, the best mark in MLB against sub .500 opponents.
The Rays have the better bats, hitting .261 with a .339 OBP and 380 runs scored compared to the Royals hitting .243 with a .314 OBP and 361 runs scored.
Tampa Bay has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 4.35 compared to 5.40 for the Kansas City (dead last in MLB).
Seymour has posted a 2.84 ERA in his last four starts (3 of them wins), allowing only 6 earned runs in 19 innings pitched.
The Rays are 30-18 in night games. The Royals are 22-32.
10:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-195, 9)
The Padres (43-42) just got swept by the Cubs, dropping yesterday’s series finale 23-3 as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Dodgers (56-31) just took two of three against the Athletics but failed to complete the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 7-1 as -165 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres tap righty Randy Vasquez (6-6, 4.44 ERA) and the Dodgers rebuttal with fellow righty Roki Sasaki (3-5, 4.88 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -190 home favorite and San Diego a +170 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, pushing Los Angeles up from -190 to -195 and even -200 at some places.
At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the Vegas wiseguys.
Pro action has also hit the Dodgers on the run-line (-1.5 at +105), as Los Angeles is taking in 77% of spread bets and 93% of spread dollars at DraftKings along with 83% of spread bets and 98% of spread dollars at Circa.
Home favorites coming off a loss who made the playoffs the previous season and are priced -175 or higher in the opening game of new series, like the Dodgers here, are 18-5 (78%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Favorites priced -190 or higher facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 68-26 (72%) with a 6% ROI since 2025.
Los Angeles has the better offense, hitting .265 with 462 runs scored compared to San Diego hitting .224 with only 333 runs scored.
Sasaki has posted a 3.50 ERA at home compared to 6.25 on the road.
On the other hand, Vasquez posted a 7.84 ERA in five June starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched. San Diego is 1-6 in his last seven starts.
The Dodgers are 26-14 (65%) at home, the 3rd best home record in MLB.
