Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9)
The Blue Jays (36-38) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-1 as -120 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-0 as -105 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.78 ERA) and the Red Sox (29-42) turn to fellow righty Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on Boston to earn a win at Fenway and avoid the sweep, steaming the Red Sox up from -115 to -130.
At Circa, Boston is only receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 55% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites -140 or less, like the Red Sox here, are 202-153 (57%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot home favorites priced between -125 and -140 who made the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 50-23 (69%) with a 21% ROI since 2025.
Favorites who have lost the first two games of a series and are looking to avoid the sweep are 44-28 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Boston is 9-2 in Gray’s last 11 starts. He is 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA at home.
On the other hand, Yesavage has posted a 9.28 ERA in two June starts, giving up 11 earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched.
2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 7.5)
The Brewers (45-26) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 2-1 as -155 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-4 as -125 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series opener, the Guardians (39-35) start lefty Parker Messick (6-3, 2.68 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow southpaw Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.59 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -135 home favorite and Cleveland a +115 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Brewers to complete the sweep, steaming Milwaukee up from -135 to -155.
We’ve also seen sharp action hit the Milwaukee run-line (-1.5 at +145), as the Brewers are receiving 66% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars at DraftKings along with 67% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars at Circa.
Above .500 home favorites off a win with a winning record priced -155 or less, like the Brewers here, are 76-48 (61%) with an 8% ROI this season.
When both teams are above .500, the team receiving line movement in their favor has gone 99-58 (63%) with a 15% ROI this season.
The Brewers have additional betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .255 with 381 runs scored compared to Cleveland hitting .229 with only 294 runs scored.
The Brewers are hitting .259 at home this season (5th best in MLB) while the Guardians are only hitting .219 on the road (2nd worst).
9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Athletics (-140, 10.5)
The Angels (30-45) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-1 as +145 road dogs. Similarly, the Athletics (36-38) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, losing yesterday’s series finale 12-4 as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Angels tap righty Jose Soriano (8-4, 2.79 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with lefty Gage Jump (2-1, 3.09 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -125 home favorite and Los Angeles a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the A’s at a cheap chalk price, steaming the Athletics up from -125 to -140.
At Circa, the A’s are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling a one-way bet split in their favor from the Vegas sharps.
Home favorites facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the A’s here, are 133-93 (59%) with a 6% ROI this season.
The A’s are 21-16 (57%) with a 17% ROI off a loss this season, the 3rd most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .251 with a .420 slugging percentage compared to the Angels hitting .238 with a .394 slugging percentage.
The A’s are hitting .270 at home, 2nd best in MLB.
The Athletics are also hitting .248 against righties (9th) while the Angels are only hitting .235 against lefties (22nd).
Gage has posted a 1.96 ERA in three June starts (all wins), allowing only 4 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched.
