Today we have a smaller than usual slate of MLB action on tap with only 9 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers (-190, 9)
This is the final game of a four-game series.
The Brewers (37-22) took the first two games, winning the opener 16-2 as -165 home favorites and then winning the second game 8-3 as -270 home favorites. Then the Giants (24-38) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, coming through as +115 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Giants hand the ball to righty Adrian Houser (2-5, 5.59 ERA) and the Brewers turn to fellow righty Coleman Crow (0-0, 3.14 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -160 home favorite and San Francisco a +140 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive price and have laid the wood the Brew Crew, steaming Milwaukee up from -160 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in over 80% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Milwaukee offers betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the more productive bats, posting a .334 OBP with 292 runs scored compared to the Giants posting a .300 OBP with 238 runs scored.
Milwaukee is 26-13 (67%) with a 12% ROI as a favorite, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB.
Crow has allowed 2 earned runs or less in all three starts this season, with Milwaukee going a perfect 3-0 in those games.
Milwaukee is 21-12 at home. San Francisco is 12-22 on the road.
8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros (-115, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Pirates (33-29) took the opener 10-6, cashing as -105 road dogs. Then the Astros (28-35) bounced back with an 11-9 win yesterday, coming through as +120 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Pirates send out righty Jared Jones (0-0, 10.38 ERA) and the Astros counter with fellow righty Kai-Wei Teng (3-3, 2.57 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with Houston at home, as the Astros have subtly crept up from a -110 home pick’em to a -115 home favorite.
At DraftKings, the Astros are receiving 50% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in only 33% of moneyline bets but 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.
Home favorites -140 or less facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Astros here, are 107-72 (60%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Interleague home favorites off a win with a line move in their favor priced -150 or less are 73-36 (67%) with a 19% ROI since 2025.
Teng posted a 2.42 ERA in six May appearances, giving up only 6 earned runs in 22.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Jones is making his second start of the season after allowing 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings pitched in his debut against the Twins.
