Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (-145, 8)
The Padres (32-26) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, losing the series finale 4-2 as -115 road favorites. Similarly, the Phillies (30-29) just lost two of three against the Dodgers, dropping the series finale 9-1 as +200 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres send out righty Randy Vasquez (5-3, 3.28 ERA) and the Phillies go with fellow righty Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.72 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 home favorite and San Diego a +105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Phillies at home, steaming Philadelphia up from -125 to -145.
At Circa, the Phillies are receiving only 29% of moneyline bets but a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the home favorite is 40-21 (66%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Sharps have also sided with the Phillies on the run-line (-1.5 at +140), with Philadelphia receiving 52% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Philadelphia has betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Phillies are 4-1 in Nola’s last five starts.
Philadelphia is 3-0 against San Diego this season.
7:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (-125, 8) at Minnesota Twins
The Twins (28-33) won last night’s series opener 9-6, coming through as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the White Sox (32-28) start righty Davis Martin (8-1, 2.00 ERA) and the Twins tap lefty Connor Prielipp (1-3, 5.13 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -115 road favorite and Minnesota a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the White Sox to bounce back laying short chalk, pushing Chicago up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, Chicago is receiving 72% of moneyline bets and a hefty 91% of moneyline dollars, a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Road favorites priced -130 or less with a winning record and line movement in their favor against a below .500 team, like the White Sox here, are 63-48 (57%) with a 5% ROI since 2024.
The White Sox are 15-12 (56%) with a 22% ROI off a loss this season, the 3rd most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
We’ve also seen sharp action come down in favor of the White Sox run-line (-1.5 at +140), with Chicago receiving 54% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Chicago is 10-1 in Martin’s 11 starts this season. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in 8 of his 11 starts overall.
Prielipp posted a 5.55 ERA in five May starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 24.1 innings pitched. Minnesota is 1-4 in his last five starts overall.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Seattle Mariners (-150, 7.5)
The Mariners (32-29) took last night’s Interleague series opener 3-2 in extra innings, cashing as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets (26-34) hand the ball to righty Jonah Tong (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Logan Gilbert (3-4, 3.69 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -140 home favorite and New York a +120 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Mariners at home, driving Seattle up from -140 to -150.
At Circa, the Mariners are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, a notable one-way bet split in their favor from the sharps in Vegas.
Sharps have also leaned in favor of the Mariners run-line (-1.5 at +140), as Seattle is receiving 38% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Mariners here, are 62-34 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Above .500 home favorites off a win priced -155 or less are 62-37 (63%) with an 11% ROI this season.
Seattle offers correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Seattle has the more productive bats, hitting .233 with a .317 OBP, .396 slug and 258 runs scored compared to New York hitting .226 with a .292 OBP, .357 slug and 241 runs scored.
The Mariners are 6-3 in Gilbert’s last nine starts. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of this last ten starts overall.
Seattle is 18-11 at home. New York is 11-19 on the road.
