Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-115, 8.5)
The Red Sox (15-21) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as -125 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 10-3 as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox send out righty Sonny Gray (2-1, 4.30 ERA) and the Tigers (18-19) turn to fellow righty Jack Flaherty (0-2, 5.90 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -130 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog.
The public is split down the middle and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this virtual 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall away from the Tigers (-130 to -115) and toward the Red Sox (+110 to -105).
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have gotten down on Boston to complete the sweep.
Essentially, smart Red Sox money has driven this game down toward a pick’em.
Boston has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more amount of expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
The Tigers are 2-5 in Flaherty’s seven starts this season. He has a 6.59 ERA at home and a 7.31 ERA at night compared to a 5.28 ERA on the road and a 4.15 ERA in the day.
7:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-170, 8)
The Cubs (24-12) have taken the first two games of this four-game series, winning the opener 5-4 as -220 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 3-2 in extra innings as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (20-16) hand the ball to righty Brady Singer (2-2, 5.57 ERA) and the Cubs go with fellow righty Colin Rea (4-1, 4.41 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -165 home favorite and Cincinnati a +145 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the wood with the Cubs at Wrigley, pushing Chicago up from -165 to -170, with a few other shops touching -175.
At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Pros have also backed the Cubs on the run-line (-1.5 at +125), as Chicago is taking in 60% of spread bets and 92% of spread dollars at DraftKings.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cubs have the edge at the plate, hitting .258 with a .352 OBP and 193 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .218 with a .303 OBP and only 147 runs scored.
Singer is 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA on the road this season. Meanwhile, Rea is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home.
The Cubs are 16-5 at home, the best home record in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-130, 7.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks (17-17) dominated last night’s series opener 9-0, taking care of business as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Pirates (19-17) send out righty Paul Skenes (4-2, 3.18 ERA) and the Diamondbacks go with fellow righty Michael Soroka (4-1, 4.70 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -150 road favorite and Arizona a +125 home dog.
The public is hammering the Pirates with their ace on the bump, as Pittsburgh is taking in 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, despite Pittsburgh receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line move away from the Pirates (-150 to -130) and toward the Diamondbacks (+125 to +105). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arizona, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Snakes are taking in only 31% of moneyline bets but a massive 84% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of big Vegas money backing the home dog.
Home dogs off a win, like Arizona here, are 46-44 (51%) this season but have generated an 11% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Skenes has a 4.26 ERA on the road compared to 2.53 at home.
On the other hand, Soroka is 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA at home compared to a 12.46 ERA on the road.
