The model record continues to find its natural level. Sitting at 58–33–5 — 63.74% on the year, the model has settled into the range we see most seasons as the year matures. The wins are coming from the right spots and the losses continue to lean on the lower-confidence tiers where variance is expected. That’s the process working exactly as it should.
This week the UFC travels to Macau for an early morning card with a 4AM ET start time.That means getting your bets in before you call it a night.
Let’s dig in.
Mingyang Zhang vs Alonzo Menifield
Mingyang Zhang is one of those fighters who the model grabs onto quickly, and even with a limited UFC sample the numbers are already telling a compelling story.
Zhang enters looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss, a second-round knockout against Johnny Walker last August. Before that, he’d been dominant in his short UFC run, and the underlying numbers reflect that. He’s 3–1 in the promotion since debuting, and at this stage of his career, one loss against a heavy-handed fighter like Walker doesn’t change what the data says about him. Worth noting, Zhang barely qualifies for the model with only four UFC fights under his belt.
Across from him is Alonzo Menifield, 38 years old and sitting at 2–3 in his last five. Most recently a TKO loss to Volkan Oezdemir last November. The decline in the numbers is real, and the recent results reflect it.
The xR% gap is significant. Zhang checks in at a strong 77%, a number that reflects his early UFC dominance even after just four fights. Menifield has slipped to 53%, below the comfort zone and consistent with a fighter in the later stages of a long career.
The finishing ability on both sides is real, but the recent trend matters. Zhang has three UFC knockouts and is still actively producing that power. Menifield has six career knockout victories but hasn’t scored a win by finish since a submission in 2023 and his last knockout came all the way back in 2022. The hands may still be there, but the evidence of late suggests they’ve slowed.
The striking numbers make the gap obvious. Zhang lands a remarkable 7.42 significant strikes per minute with a +2.16 differential. Elite output by any measure. He absorbs slightly above five per minute, which is a volume game on both ends. Menifield lands 3.74 per minute with a –0.16 differential, absorbing more than he’s giving back. He’s been knocked down in each of his last three losses, a pattern that reflects a chin that’s been compromised over a long career.
The ground game isn’t a major factor here. Zhang has zero takedown attempts in his UFC career and is likely not looking to change that approach on Saturday. He does hold a 65% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges and maintains a 100% takedown defense, though he hasn’t faced many serious ground threats. Menifield brings only five career takedowns at 36% accuracy and won’t be threatening the mat game in any meaningful way.
The model runs it through and delivers an 82% win probability for Mingyang Zhang — full confidence, Tier 1 Elite Favorite. His moneyline sits at –250, which isn’t a number we’re excited about laying after a week off. Where the value lives is the method.
Zhang by knockout is the most logical path given what the data shows. His output, Menifield’s recent chin issues, and the three knockdowns suffered in his last three losses paint a clear picture. That prop is worth targeting if available. We’re watching the board before committing.
Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo
There’s a version of this main event conversation that requires us to separate who Deiveson Figueiredo was from who he is now. At flyweight, he was a two-time champion and one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet. At bantamweight in 2026, the numbers tell a very different story.
Song Yadong enters at just 28 years old with plenty of runway ahead of him. He’s coming off a decision loss to Sean O’Malley last January, his most recent result in a slightly uneven stretch. A technical decision win over Henry Cejudo in 2025, a loss to Petr Yan before that, and a 3–2 record over his last five dating back to 2023. The talent is undeniable. The consistency is what he’s chasing.
Figueiredo, meanwhile, started his bantamweight run with three straight wins and looked like a legitimate threat at 135. Since then he’s gone 1–3 in his last four, albeit against very tough opponents. But he is now 38 years old, and most recently dropped a decision to Umar Nurmagomedov, a fight he also missed weight for. Missing weight in a new weight class after a loss isn’t exactly the profile of a fighter on the rise.
The xR% gap is the first and most telling number. Figueiredo has fallen to 44%, a significant red flag that reflects a fighter losing more rounds than he’s winning across his bantamweight run. Song sits at a healthy 63%, a workable mark that reflects his ability to control the pace of fights even when the results haven’t always gone his way.
The striking picture reinforces the gap. Song lands 4.42 significant strikes per minute with a +0.48 differential, has scored seven knockdowns in the UFC, and has never been knocked down himself. That combination of output, efficiency, and durability is a strong profile at any weight class. Figueiredo lands just 2.63 significant strikes per minute with a –0.84 differential, absorbing more than he’s giving back and posting one of the lower output numbers in recent memory for a main event fighter. He’s scored 12 knockdowns across his UFC career, but only one in his last eight fights. Whether that finishing power has survived the move to bantamweight is a genuine question.
The control picture goes to Song as well. He holds a 61% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges compared to 48% for Figueiredo. Figgy still attempts 2.29 takedowns per five minutes at 35% accuracy, but Song defends at 74%, making that path difficult to execute consistently.
Running it through the model, the result is clear. Song Yadong receives a 71.31% win probability, with an Elite Favorite designation. The problem is the moneyline sits at -550. That number has no value, and we’re not going near it.
The prop market is where this fight becomes interesting. Song by decision at +110 is the most logically supported path, Figueiredo has proven to be an extremely tough out against elite competition, and Song’s profile is built on sustained output rather than early finishes. If you need a number, that’s the one. Song by KO at +130 is also worth a look given the knockdown history on both sides, though Figueiredo’s durability makes it slightly harder to trust.
We’re watching where those props land in Vegas as the week develops. No official play on the slip so far, but the decision prop is the angle worth targeting for the right bettor.
The model sits at 58–33–5 (63.74%) on the year. The process continues to do its job.
Reminder to catch this week’s First Strike. Dave Ross and I were joined by Jordan Sherwood this week. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts and on YouTube so you never miss an episode.
Follow along on X at @TheRobbeo and @drosssports
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
For the full model tale of the tape on every fight ran through the model, head to FightingWithNumbers.com.
