The Hawks had to choose between Trae Young and Dejounte Murray this offseason. The two just never clicked, which isn’t surprising given their repetitive skill sets.
Atlanta’s net rating in 2023-24 was -1.6. However, with Young on the floor and Murray off, the Hawks had a net rating of +3.1 and their 122.1 points per 100 possessions put them in the 92nd percentile of all qualified lineups offensively. That was better than lineups with Murray on and Young off.
All of that, combined with what Young means to the franchise, was enough for the Hawks to give their three-time All-Star a seventh season with the team. Young’s lack of a robust trade market didn’t hurt either. Things can change quickly in the NBA. If things go south, Young and the Hawks can still part ways. But for now, Atlanta is looking to build something sustainable around the 25-year-old.
The project starts with Zaccharie Risacher, who Atlanta drafted with the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Risacher is years away from reaching his full potential, but he can be a serviceable 3-and-D option right now. Last year, Risacher was the 2024 EuroCup Rising Star, as he averaged 11.1 points per game and shot 38.7% from deep for JL Bourg. Risacher also took on the toughest wing assignments on defense, and he did so in a competitive league. Quin Snyder’s team was 27th in the league in adjusted defensive rating last season. So, if Risacher is defending, there will be minutes for him.
Atlanta is also going to take a stab at developing Dyson Daniels. Daniels was the eighth pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, but the Pelicans couldn’t give him the type of minutes he needed. The Hawks shouldn’t have that problem. Daniels is a good secondary playmaker, a high-level wing defender and an improving shooter. He played good two-way basketball for the Australian national team in the Olympics, and Snyder should be excited about getting his hands on him.
The Hawks will also be banking on some internal development for Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu and Kobe Bufkin. Last season, Johnson averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. He has legitimate All-Star potential and should be viewed as untouchable as Atlanta looks to figure out its future. Okongwu also played rather well last season, averaging 10.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game in 25.5 minutes per game. Atlanta could look to start him over the aging Clint Capela. Meanwhile, Bufkin might have trouble carving out a role, but the lefty is a creative on-ball player and competes on defense. There’s a good player in there somewhere.
Atlanta also has proven role players in Bogdan Bogdanovic, DeAndre Hunter and Larry Nance Jr. Bogdanovic is a microwave scorer and perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Hunter is a good spot-up shooter and uses his big frame to compete defensively at both forward spots. And Nance is an undersized center that plays hard on both ends and always seems to produce, even if it never looks pretty.
Given Young’s ability to be the engine of elite offenses, the Hawks should be in the Play-In picture in a weak Eastern Conference. Before finishing 11th in adjusted offensive rating last season, the Hawks were Top 10 in aORTG in three straight years. Atlanta should flirt with that again — especially with Snyder having upped the team’s 3-point rate from 33.1% in 2022-23 to 40.8% last year. This team has shooters, guys that can run and players that understand their roles. They should also be a bit better defensively, especially on the perimeter. The Hawks had the third-worst 3PT% defense on non-heaves last season. That’s bound to change with more size and length in the rotation.
Where things go from here depends on how quickly some of the young guys develop. The Hawks are semi-competitive right now, but that’s not enough for Young. He’s going to want to see whether or not Risacher, Okongwu and Bufkin can help him and Johnson compete in the Eastern Conference sooner rather than later.
Hawks Win Total Prediction
The Hawks went Under last year’s 42.5 win total, but they did win 36 games. That would have been good enough for Atlanta to hit the Over on this year’s number, and that was with some overlap between Young and Murray. Considering last year’s On/Off splits, the Hawks should be solid with just Young, plus an improved group of role players. Atlanta also won’t be chasing Cooper Flagg, as the Spurs have the right to swap first-round picks with them in 2025. That alone helps when looking at a lower win total like this one.
Lean: Hawks Over 35.5 Wins (-132)
