Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 1 Pick, Prediction, Odds
The 2025-26 Eastern Conference Finals begin with a meeting between the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, May 19. The Knicks are big favorites in this one, with part of the thinking being that they have a massive rest advantage over the visitors. Will that result in a beatdown in favor of New York? Find out in our Cavaliers vs. Knicks betting preview. Also check out our VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our NBA postseason content.
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How To Watch Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 1
When: 8:00 pm ET on Tuesday, May 19
Where: Madison Square Garden in New York, New York
Channel: ESPN
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 1 Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:00 am ET on Tuesday, May 19
Moneyline: Knicks -265, Cavaliers +215
Spread: Knicks -7.5 (-105), Cavaliers +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 217.5 (-105), Under 217.5 (-115)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Game 1 Picks
I was originally planning to sit this game out with the spread, but seeing the Cavaliers as 7.5-point underdogs is tough to pass up. Cleveland is winless under Kenny Atkinson when playing as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, and this is a game I imagine New York will win given the rest situation. However, while the Cavaliers are 0-4 straight-up in that situation, they’re 3-1 against the spread in such games. They’re also 16-8 ATS as road underdogs under Atkinson, in general.
This is also just a series I expect to be tight, and 7.5 is a number that could be playable no matter who the underdog is. I wrote up this series on Monday, going deep on the matchups and tactics we might see. And while the Knicks are going to have fresher legs than the Cavaliers on Tuesday, Cleveland has ways it can attack New York. I really like the idea of James Harden initiating a ton of screen-and-roll actions, getting Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns in poor defensive situations. Donovan Mitchell can also approach things the same way, and Evan Mobley is coming off a strong second half of the series against Detroit. Perhaps getting to play two nights after Game 7 will allow all of the Cavaliers to keep their momentum going, and maybe OG Anunoby will be a bit shaky after having missed time with a hamstring injury.
We also did see Oklahoma City get off to a miserable start against San Antonio in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder did ultimately find their footing, but rust clearly won out over rest in that first quarter. Who’s to say that won’t happen to the Knicks, allowing the Cavaliers to get off to a good start in a game with a big spread?
Also, it should be noted that Dunks & Threes, a website that I believe does the best job of producing advanced numbers, has New York winning by only five points here. Also, Steve Makinen, our VSiN analytics guru, has the Knicks winning 111.7 to 104.8. That’s only a difference of 6.9, so he also has a tiny edge in favor of the Cavaliers.
In addition to grabbing the points with Cleveland, I’m also taking Sam Merrill to knock down at least two triples at +102. Merrill knocked down at least two triples in the final four games of the Pistons series, and he has now made multiple threes in seven of the last 10 games. Merrill will have some games in this series in which his defense will be problematic for the Cavaliers. But I don’t see Atkinson sitting him too much after a 23-point performance in Game 7, and the Knicks were a bottom-10 team defending the three-ball during the regular season.
I’m also taking Dean Wade to go Over 7.5 PRA in Game 1. It’s a little juicy at -130 odds, but I do think Atkinson will find a ton of minutes for Wade in this series. He has proven to be one of the few players that isn’t afraid of the challenge of defending Brunson. Well, if Wade does play his usual 23 to 25 minutes in this game, he should do a decent job of accumulating numbers. Wade actually went Over this total in all seven of the games he played against the Raptors in the first round, then he did it in three of the seven against the Pistons. That means he has racked up at least eight PRA in 10 of the 14 postseason games he has played this year. Why can’t he do it again? This is the worst defensive team he has seen in the playoffs so far.
Bet: Cavaliers +7.5 (-108 – 1.5 units)
Bet: Merrill Over 1.5 Made Threes (+102)
Bet: Wade Over 7.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)
