Houston was a pleasant surprise last season. It finished 41-41 SU/45-35-2 ATS and 11th in the Western Conference. The team surpassed its win total and was alive for a berth in the Western Conference play-in tournament up until the last days of the regular season. This season, the market expectations are much higher. The win total is 12 wins higher than where it closed, and the Rockets’ power rating is higher than it was prior to last season. This season will be about whether or not this team can improve and meet the expectations bettors have thrust upon it.
Defense is going to be a strength of the Rockets’ once again. They finished seventh in non-garbage time defensive efficiency last season (112.9). Where Houston was strongest was in transition. Opponents added just 0.1 points per 100 possessions through transition off live rebounds and averaged 109.3 points per 100 plays; both marks led the NBA. Overall, they were the second-best transition defense (116.9). It remains to be seen if the Rockets can lead the league in these categories once again, but it will be one of the best once more with Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks back in the fold.
The offense will revolve around fourth-year center Alperen Sengun. In 63 games last season, Sengun averaged 21.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists on 53.7% shooting from the floor. He was second on the team in usage rate (27.1%), and after finishing third in the Most Improved Player race, he is a threat to win it this season. However, even with those eye-popping numbers Houston still finished 20th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency. If it is to improve, the young pieces will have to continue to develop.
Jabari Smith Jr. greatly improved his shooting – he went from 30.7% from deep his rookie season to 36.3% last season – but he has not had a positive impact on the court. Last season, the Rockets’ net rating worsened by 9.0 points every 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Amen Thompson improved Houston’s net rating by 1.5 points every 100 possessions and was a solid defender. Cam Whitmore averaged 12.1 points and 3.8 rebounds in 18.7 minutes per game. Then there is rookie guard Reed Sheppard who dominated in his short stint in the Summer League, and will almost certainly push for time at the backup point guard spot.
Rockets Win Total Prediction
Houston has an edict to win now from the front office and above. That is why they pushed the envelope last season with the additions of VanVleet and Brooks. The Rockets have quite a few assets to burn this season. Will they use any of them to acquire a piece at the deadline in order to get this team into the postseason? It might not be a big fish – like Kevin Durant – but it seems likely that this team will do just that. But, it will also have to maneuver through a difficult schedule. Positive Residual has Houston with the second-highest strength of schedule. It has a -2 net rest advantage for the season and 16 back-to-backs. But this is a front office dedicated to making it to the postseason, and with some young upside pieces and a desire to spend it’s hard to look anywhere but Over for the Rockets this season.
Lean: Over 43.5 Wins (-108)
