NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, March 19th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 103-91-3 | Units: +5.65 | ROI: 2.7%
Houston Rockets (-5, 229) at Washington Wizards
Washington has seemingly thrown in the towel with less than 20 games left in the regular season. To be fair, injuries are a big reason why. Bilal Coulibaly was lost for the season with a fractured wrist. Deni Avdija, Marvin Bagley, Tyus Jones, Eugene Omoruyi and Landry Shamet are all listed out as well. Kyle Kuzma is questionable to play after missing the last contest. This team barely has a serviceable roster, and it is why this number has climbed as high as it has.
Even if Kuzma plays, how in the world are the Wizards going to score tonight? Avdija and Jones are two of their best offensive players. Without them in the last two contests they were limited to 1.005 points per possession. It seems obvious that offense will be hard to come by for Washington tonight.
Houston is an elite defensive team. It ranks fifth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (112.3), allows the seventh-fewest shots at the rim (30.6%) and the fewest points per 100 plays in transition off live rebounds (108.1). For the Wizards, being unable to generate shots at the rim and transition opportunities is a death knell.
This leads to a play on the under for this game. The market is moving in that direction, likely due to the reasons listed in this column. The added bonus here is that it is unlikely the Rockets push this total over with their own offensive effort. They average just 111.8 points per 100 possessions without Alperen Sengun this season.
Best Bet: UNDER 228 – Playable to 227.5
NBA Best Bets
Rockets/Wizards UN 228
Remaining Games
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic (-12.5, 203.5)
Charlotte comes into this with two days of rest, but the magic this team once had is gone. It is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. The offense has completely fallen off and managed just 104.2 points per 100 possessions over that span. Orlando has also owned this matchup this season. The Magic are 2-0 SU and ATS against the Hornets. Orlando has limited Charlotte to 1.046 points per possession in the two games, and it has a +13.3 net rating in those contests. The Magic are healthy and playing the second game of an eight-game homestand. Still, bettors are paying an inflated price here and the number has not moved from the overnight line.
New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5, 217) at Brooklyn Nets
Once again, the number on the Pelicans has been bet up from the overnight opener, and it’s easy to see why. New Orleans is 6-1 SU/5-1-1 ATS in March. It has outscored opponents by 14.2 points every 100 possessions. It is third in both non-garbage time offensive efficiency (121.7) and defensive efficiency (107.5). The Pelicans also get a Nets team which is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. However, the market price continues to rise here and bettors looking to get involved are paying a premium. This current number would translate to a 12.5-point spread back in New Orleans. That is the exact number the Pelicans laid against the Trail Blazers two nights ago; a team that is much worse than the Brooklyn Nets.
Dallas Mavericks (-7.5, 234) at San Antonio Spurs
Dallas is getting hot once again. After a big win over Denver over the weekend it is now 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS in its last six games. Over that span the Mavericks have averaged 120.9 points per 100 possessions. That is not a surprise when Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving share the floor, and they have in five of these six contests. The real question is about the legitimacy of their defense over this run. Opponents have averaged just 110.3 points per 100 possessions. That is a surprising turnaround from a team that is 21st for the season in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (117.5). That is likely to revert back to form, but it is not likely that happens tonight. San Antonio is 0-3 SU and ATS against Dallas with a 103.4 offensive rating. The Spurs have had no answer for the Mavericks’ offense and have allowed 1.206 points per possession in the three games this season.
Denver Nuggets (-4, 213) at *Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a brutal spot for Minnesota, and it comes in a massive game. The Timberwolves are playing their third game in four nights with no rest. It is also their first game back home after concluding a six-game road trip that spanned 11 days. We also have no idea what the injury report will look like for Minnesota. Rudy Gobert did not play yesterday in Utah. Naz Reid left the win over the Jazz with a head injury. Anthony Edwards dislocated his finger on his thunderous dunk over John Collins, but did play the rest of the contest. All of this is why this number is up to 7.5 consensus. If Edwards and Gobert play this number is definitely worth grabbing, so monitor the injury reports throughout the day.
