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NBA Best Bets
Record: 79-55-1 | Units: +19.9u | ROI: 13.6%
Orlando Magic (-5, 228) at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio has really turned things around since moving Victor Wembanyama to center. In the 27 games since the team is only 7-20 SU, but it is 15-12 ATS in those 27 games. Since the beginning of January the Spurs are 5-10 SU/11-4 ATS. The improvement this team has shown is real, and it begins with Wembanyama and their reconfigured starting lineup.
Wembanyama is now playing with a true point guard in Tre Jones. In the possessions with Jones at the point and Wembanyama at center San Antonio has a +10.2 net rating. Their starting lineup – which includes Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie – has outscored opponents by 11.9 points per 100 possessions. It also has a 108.6 defensive rating.
This has become a formidable young team worth backing, especially at home against an opponent like Orlando.
The Magic have hit the skids. They have won consecutive games just once since the middle of December, and they come into this game 3-8 SU/5-6 ATS. Their offense has been the biggest culprit, averaging just 111.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over this span.
It’s hard to see Orlando coming into San Antonio and executing on offense, given its struggles. These new lineups for the Spurs are elite in transition defense, and they rank in the 69th percentile in halfcourt defense. One could argue over the last month these two teams are nearly equals to one another, as opposed to what the market is saying with this number.
Play: Spurs (+4.5) – Playable to (+3.5)
Los Angeles Clippers (-11, 239) at Washington Wizards
The Clippers were caught in a letdown spot on Monday in Cleveland after an emotional win over Boston. The loss snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run for Los Angeles, but the team is a great spot to get back on track as massive favorites against Washington tonight.
This spot does come with its challenges though. First, it’s the fourth game of a seven-game road trip and it is the fourth game in six days, all of which are away from home. Second, the Wizards do have the makeup of a team that has given the Clippers trouble in the past.
Los Angeles is an elite defensive team, but it has trouble with teams that play in transition with quick guards. Washington leads the league in transition frequency off live rebounds (36.9%), and both Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones could cause problems for this defense.
This is not to say that the Wizards can pull the upset tonight. Instead, I believe they can have offensive success against an opponent in the midst of a tough road trip taking on a lesser opponent. Washington already has the profile of a team that can score against Los Angeles, so betting on it to surpass its very low team total tonight is worth a look.
Play: Wizards TT OV 111.5 (-115) – Playable to (-125)
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-1, 229)
This is an absolutely brutal stretch the Thunder find themselves in. Oklahoma City dropped a tough game against Minnesota on Monday, and now it must play another divisional opponent in Denver.
Some might not believe divisional matchups in the NBA hold as much weight as they do in the NFL, but they absolutely do, especially when the top seed in the conference is on the line.
The Nuggets, Timberwolves and Thunder are all vying for the top seed in the Western Conference, and with those added stakes these games have become intense. On Monday, both Oklahoma City and Minnesota combined to score 208 points in a tight contest. Now, the Thunder must host the Nuggets which are also looking to exact a bit of revenge in a high-leverage contest.
This does come with some risk – much like the play on Philadelphia last night – because Nikola Jokic is questionable with back soreness. However, this contest carries a ton of weight. The Nuggets have a homestand against Portland coming up before a quick three-game road trip. I would assume Jokic takes one of those days off before he misses a game of this magnitude.
Play: Nuggets ML (-105) – Playable at (-105) or better
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-14, 224)
Dallas will not have Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving or Derrick Lively tonight in Minnesota. Two others – Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr. – are doubtful to play. Those injuries explain why this number is where it is. Considering how beat up this Mavericks team it is easy to write them off, but this is an ugly underdog I find myself attracted to.
When Jason Kidd is forced to go into the depths of his roster Dallas becomes a much more defensive oriented team. In the possessions without those injured on the floor the Mavericks rank in the 93rd percentile in defensive efficiency (109.4). Josh Green and Grant Williams are good defenders. Dwight Powell can be a plus defender in a larger role which is likely to happen tonight given Lively’s absence.
Minnesota is also a team that is not one to win by margin when expected to. It is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games and has slipped to 23-21-3 ATS on the season. As a home favorite this season the Timberwolves are 8-9-1 ATS, and as a favorite overall they are 15-16-3 ATS. They are also coming off a brutal game against the Thunder which might have some lingering effects tonight.
Play: Mavericks (+14) – Playable at (+14) or better
NBA Best Bets
Spurs (+4.5)
Wizards TT OV 111.5 (-115)
Nuggets (-105)
Mavericks (+14)
