Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 39-45 | Units: -8.74 | ROI: -10.51%
Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (PK, 218)
For the first time in a long time the injury report for Miami is relatively clean. That would mean that the Heat should have the entirety of their projected starting lineup on the floor, and that is a massive positive. When Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro are on the floor together they outscore opponents by 12.0 points per 100 possessions and own a 103.0 defensive rating. The fact that this lineup is intact already puts Miami in an advantageous position here against Dallas.
The Mavericks were also dealt a blow when they lost Christian Wood to a thumb injury for at least a week. Wood is the Mavericks’ second leading scorer, and when Luka Doncic hits the bench Dallas is going to be desperate for shot creation as long as Wood is out. In the possessions in which both Doncic and Wood are off the floor the Mavericks average just 101.3 points per 100 possessions. Given the health of Miami and the injury situation for Dallas this is going to be a play on the Heat.
Play: Heat (-1)
Best Bet Recap
Heat (-1)
NBA Games & Odds
New Orleans Pelicans (-1, 227) at Orlando Magic
It is extremely rare that an NBA team enters a regular season game with four days of rest, but that is exactly what the situation is for Orlando which has not played since Sunday. Unfortunately, the time off does not mean the Magic enter this game fully healthy, as Franz Wagner reportedly sprained his ankle in practice and is questionable to play tonight. If he cannot play it’s a big loss for Orlando, as the team is -10.4 in the possessions without him on the floor compared to -0.4 when he is on. Meanwhile, New Orleans continued its trend of losing comfortably to quality teams last time out, dropping one to Miami 124-98 and falling to 3-5 SU and ATS since losing Zion Williamson.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-4, 232.5)
New York was dealt a massive blow when it lost Mitchell Robinson for at least three weeks to a thumb injury. Robinson only played nine minutes in the loss to Washington, and without him on the floor the Knicks allowed the Wizards to grab 43.4% of their missed shot attempts! His presence on both ends of the floor will be missed, but especially on the offensive glass, as he is a big reason why New York ranks second in offensive rebounding (32.0%) and first in putback points generated per 100 missed shot attempts (24.9). Atlanta is not a particularly great rebounding team, so this could have set up for a big game for Mitchell, but the Hawks cannot be slept on. They are finally healthy, and it is no coincidence that the team is starting to find its groove now.
*Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5, 228)
This will be the fourth game in six nights for Golden State, all of which have come on the road. We know that Klay Thompson will be unavailable, but the status of Stephen Curry, who played on the last back-to-back, and others is unknown. As of now, this number is now as high as 7.5 in favor of Cleveland and the unknown status of the Warriors’ roster is the key reason why. Donovan Mitchell is questionable with a groin injury that kept him out of the loss to Memphis on Wednesday, and if he plays this number could touch double-digits.
Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 231.5) at San Antonio Spurs
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are not on the injury report tonight, so both should be on the floor when they face San Antonio. The Spurs might be winning as many games lately, but the team is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games, due mostly to the market’s extremely low rating of them. In fact, San Antonio actually has a -7.1 net rating over the course of this ATS run, giving us an idea of how low the market rating has been. It would lead me to believe that blindly betting against this team is a fool’s errand, as the value has been sucked out of that angle by the market.
Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets (-11, 240)
Since losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury the Pacers are 0-4 SU and ATS with an abysmal 103.1 offensive rating in non-garbage time. They have a -20.4 net rating in those four games, and are clearly nothing like the team that got off to the hot start that has them within a win of their season win total. Until this team shows more life offensively its hard to back them, because their defense is not getting any better. The market has not budged on the side, but the total has dropped slightly to 239.5 consensus.
*Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz (-5.5, 228.5)
Kyrie Irving has been dealing with a calf issue that kept him out of the loss to San Antonio a few days ago, so it is likely he will not be available tonight against Utah. Brooklyn has been extremely inefficient on offense since losing Kevin Durant, and that continued last night when they put up 1.098 points per possessions in the loss to Phoenix. If Irving cannot play tonight then there is little reason to believe this changes. This line move to 7.5 seems strong, but the Jazz laid 8.5 the short-handed Clippers the other night and took care of business.
Memphis Grizzlies (-7, 245) at Los Angeles Lakers
Memphis is 11-0 SU/7-4 ATS in its last 11 games, but a majority of those victories came at home. The Grizzlies start a west coast trip with this stop in Los Angeles, looking to improve their 11-10 SU/8-11-2 ATS mark away from home. Facing a Laker team that might not have LeBron James would be a good way to get the road trip started. James is considered questionable to play with ankle soreness, and it is easy to rule out a game like this until his status is revealed. Los Angeles has been outscored by 15.0 points per 100 possessions when James is not on the floor, so it’s safe to say that could be a massive loss if he’s out.
