The NBA Draft is rapidly approaching, but its presence is being masked by the excitement of the NBA Finals. Here we will discuss any news surrounding the draft props that are currently available in the market, and how that news will direct wagers that can be made.
Second overall pick: Brandon Miller (-140), Scoot Henderson (-110)
This is an index prop available at DraftKings, and it seems that this pick is only down to these two options. Miller had reportedly been sliding in recent weeks due to poor showings in private workouts and interviews. The Alabama wing had struggled with his conditioning, but it was reported that he had been dealing with mono which explained the struggles.
Having said that, it does seem more negative news is leaking out about Miller. ESPN NBA Draft analyst Jonathan Givony reported in his most recent mock draft that Miller showed up to individual team meetings with a legal brief informing teams he would not be able to discuss his legal issues. That is seemingly the only thing keeping Miller from being a near certainty at this spot.
Miller has a workout with Charlotte scheduled for Saturday, so keep an eye out for news about how it goes. It could go a long way toward deciding the battle here at the second overall pick.
Jarace Walker Draft Position: 6.5 (OVER -155)
Walker was initially thought to be a candidate for the fifth overall pick, but both mock drafts and the market have him sliding down the board. Whether it is Walker falling or Ausar Thompson rising (More on that later) the former Houston forward is likely landing over his draft position.
According to Givony, one of the reasons that Walker’s standing might be slipping is his decision to cancel his pro day in Santa Barbara at the last minute despite no obvious health concerns. There is reportedly a thought within league circles that his team is shutting him down which will not help him climb up the draft if that is the case.
Walker is also a somewhat limited prospect. He projects to be a power forward, but at 6-foot-8 with an inconsistent 3-point shot his offensive game somewhat limits him. His wingspan is on par with some centers and his defensive versatility is going to give him value, but in today’s NBA there are few spots where a power forward of his build will fit. Expect that over price to continue to grow between now and draft time.
Draft Matchup: Amen Thompson (-360) over Ausar Thompson (+290)
This has been the second biggest adjustment in the NBA Draft markets that are available outside of the odds for the second overall pick. Amen Thompson initially opened as the -700 favorite in this draft matchup, but in the months since it has been hung the market has been steadily heading in Ausar Thompson’s direction. At open Ausar had an 18.2% chance of being drafted according to the market, but that has since risen to 25.6% at DraftKings.
When NBA Big Board draft analyst Rafael Barlowe joined us on Hardwood Handicappers he spoke to the dynamic between the Thompson twins, and he said the chance was growing that Ausar could surpass Amen on draft boards. Sites like NBADraft.net have Ausar going ahead of Amen as well.
Ausar is considered to be the slightly better shooter and facilitator while Amen will fit somewhat smoother on the defensive end. Either way, they are twins with similar games and that was not represented in the initial price here. Do not be surprised if the price on Amen continues to drop due to Ausar’s steady rise.
Draft Matchup: Keyonte George (-140) over Jordan Hawkins (+110)
This is a matchup where the market does not jive with some of the more popular mock drafts and big boards. Givony’s post-combine mock draft had Hawkins going 13th to Toronto and George went two picks later to Atlanta. NBA Mock Draft Database has Hawkins as the 12th consensus selection while George is 13th according to their database.
Clearly there is not that big of a gap between these two, and with Hawkins holding the honor of being considered the best shooter in the draft one would think this matchup would be a pick at best. The market has knocked 20 cents off Hawkins who initially opened +130 at DraftKings, but bettors might want to grab this +110 before it goes. This should go off at a much tighter price by the end of the month.
