It’s officially time for the NBA Playoffs. We’ve been working hard to get you ready for some of these awesome opening-round matchups, so make sure you head over to the VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our postseason content. I’ll continue giving out NBA best bets and player props here throughout the playoffs, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on anything big that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work over the next couple of weeks. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Tuesday, April 29th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on April 29th
NBA Best Bets Today – April 29th
Game 5: Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets – 10:00 pm ET
I’m not going to put anything on the Clippers, as I already have a lot invested in this series. I have Los Angeles +120 to win the series, and I also have futures on the Clippers to win the West (17-1) and the title (50-1). That said, I’m really not trying to do anything else with these teams. However, I do love Los Angeles to find a way to win this game, which is why I’m calling this a “strong lean” that will count towards my record.
While Denver, thanks to an Aaron Gordon tip-in dunk at the buzzer, was able to take home-court advantage back last game, it’s hard not to think that Los Angeles has been the better team in this series. The Clippers blew a big lead in Game 1, and it still took a rare Russell Westbrook 3 for them to lose that one. And Los Angeles played like garbage for most of Game 4, but the team flipped a switch and got the lead back in the fourth quarter.
A lot more has to break right for the Nuggets to beat the Clippers than the other way around. It took 36 points, 21 rebounds and eight assists from Nikola Jokic just to win Game 4 by two. It also took an ice-cold shooting night from Los Angeles, which I’m not sure we’ll see more of. Only six teams allowed opponents to shoot a higher 3-point percentage than the Nuggets after the All-Star break, so I don’t think the Clippers, who were third in the NBA in 3-point percentage (39.0%) this season, will shoot 33.3% from deep again.
I also just don’t see another game in which James Harden and Kawhi Leonard will combine to score only 39 points. Both players have had a lot of success finding good matchups and attacking them this series. I think we’ll see another strong effort from that duo in Game 5.
Los Angeles is also 48-37 straight-up when coming off a loss in which the team was favored under Ty Lue, who is one of the best coaches in basketball. I trust that he’ll have his team ready to go after a lackluster performance. The reality is that Los Angeles might have just overlooked Denver a bit after a beatdown in Game 3. And while that obviously put the Clippers in a compromised situation, there’s no reason this team can’t turn it back on. For a good chunk of this season, Los Angeles has been a better team than Denver on both ends of the floor. And while Jokic is the best player in the series, Ivica Zubac has had his moments doing a good job of defending him.
It’s also worth pointing out that Westbrook is doubtful again, and Michael Porter Jr. could be suspended after leaving the bench during an altercation in Game 4. If Porter Jr. is out, Denver’s rotation will be insanely thin.
Strong Lean: Clippers ML (-122 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – April 29th
Game 5: Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 8:30 pm ET
I can’t believe I’m actually taking the Over on Cory Joseph points in a playoff game, but I’m taking the Over on Cory Joseph points in a playoff game. Joseph’s point total is just 5.5 in Game 4, and he has scored at least six points in three consecutive games. Joseph also happened to score 12 points in Game 4, and that was a game in which he took eight shots. That’s the most he has taken in the series.
It goes without saying that no team wants to be counting this much on Joseph in a playoff series, but the Magic have no choice with Jalen Suggs out for the season. Boston is also loading up trying to stop Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, meaning the Celtics are daring other guys to beat them. So, even if Joseph doesn’t want to be aggressive as a scorer, he’s going to have to take a couple of shots in order to keep the defense honest. And Jrue Holiday is out for Game 5, so that’s one elite guard defender that won’t be out there to guard Joseph. So, as long as he doesn’t go out there and turn down quality looks, he should hit this.
Bet: Joseph Over 5.5 Points (-105)
Additional Plays
This is where I’ll include any late added plays, teasers/parlays or in-season futures. Come back before tip if you don’t want to miss anything. It’s always possible I’ll add something to my card.
PARLAY: Pacers ML vs. Bucks & Pistons Alt +12.5 vs. Knicks (-133 – 1.5 units)
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2024-25 NBA Record: 389-388-2 (+6.78 units)
