The 2024-25 NBA season is in full swing. I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Thursday, January 2nd. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on January 2nd
NBA Best Bets Today – January 2nd
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 pm ET
I flirted with taking the Under in this game, as both of these teams are excellent defensively. Oklahoma City is first in the league in adjusted defensive rating (105.0) and Los Angeles is sixth (109.5). However, I have had a bad feel for totals this year, so I feel a little better about taking the points with the Clippers. And the reality is that there is a correlation between the plays. If this game does end up being lower in scoring, Los Angeles should be able to avoid being defeated by 10 or more.
It’s definitely a bit scary going against Oklahoma City. This team is relentless defensively. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is absolutely unguardable in a half-court setting. But the Clippers do have some superb perimeter defenders, so they can at least make the superstar work for his buckets. And they should be able to do a good job of defending everybody else. One matchup to watch is Ivica Zubac versus Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder big man is a menace as an offensive rebounder, but Zubac generally does a good job of cleaning the glass when Los Angeles is on defense. He has a massive body and should be able to prevent second chances.
The Clippers are also 19-16-1 against the spread as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points under Ty Lue. They’re also 41-29 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 or less, which is what happened in a road blowout loss against the Spurs. That said, I’d be surprised if Lue can’t get his guys back on track. And Los Angeles is also 5-4 ATS when facing teams that allow shooting percentages of 43.0% or worse under Lue, so his team does cover when caught in a defensive battle. And for as good as Oklahoma City is when it comes to covering, the team is just 12-12 ATS under Mark Daigneault when facing teams that average 9.0 or more steals per game. The Thunder can struggle with intense ball pressure.
Bet: Clippers +9.5 (-110)
NBA Player Props Today – January 2nd
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
I have gone to this Giannis Antetokounmpo play several times this season, but the price hasn’t been right lately. Well, the Over 2.5 for Antetokounmpo’s combined steals and blocks is back at +140 odds. So, I’m firing it up again. Antetokounmpo might have had two steals and no blocks on Tuesday, but he averaged 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game in December. He also had three blocks and one steal when he faced this same Nets team on December 8th. Antetokounmpo had also had at least three “stocks” in five straight games before failing to do so against Indiana. He’s just locked in as a defender this season, as his 3.9% block rate is the third-highest number he has posted in his 12-year career. And while his steal rate isn’t as high as you’d like it to be, he’s still a threat to take the ball away at any moment. Opponents are also blocking more of Brooklyn’s shots than all but three other teams this year, and the team also has a pretty high turnover rate. Of course, the Nets have made changes to their team, so those stats could be due for some big time changes. But I still like the matchup for Antetokounmpo to fill up the stat sheet defensively.
Bet: Antetokounmpo Over 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+140)
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 pm ET
Over the last two games, Anfernee Simons is averaging 23.5 points, 6.0 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game. Also, Simons averaged 18.6 points, 5.7 assists and 2.8 rebounds per game in the month of December. And he did that despite two games in which he really struggled, scoring fewer than 10 points in both of them (at Clippers on December 3rd and vs. Jazz on December 26th). That said, Simons has mostly been lighting teams up lately, and he’s benefitting from Portland being without Jerami Grant. The Blazers need some guys to be aggressive and hunt their own shots, and Simons have never shied away from that. Well, Simons will now be taking on a Lakers team that can struggle to defend the perimeter. So, Los Angeles is a gettable matchup for opposing lead guards.
I know Simons had just 14 points, four assists and one rebound when he last played the Lakers, but he should be more engaged and aggressive this time around. This has been a trying season for Simons, but he’s on a bit of a heater right now. He should be feeling confident, and a confident player tends to be dangerous under the bright lights at Crypto.com Arena.
Bet: Simons Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-105)
Parlays, Teasers, Late Added Plays, In-Season Futures
6PT TEASER – Pacers +7.5 vs. Heat & Timberwolves +10.5 vs. Celtics (-125 – 2 units) – The Pacers are facing a Heat team that played last night. I think they’ll actually win this game outright, but I’m just asking them to keep it close. Considering what we’ve seen out of Indiana recently, the team should be able to do that. This Miami team has a lot of problems, and Rick Carlisle will exploit them. And in the second game, I’m teasing up to +10.5. The Celtics haven’t been trustworthy when it comes to winning by double digits, and the Timberwolves always tend to play elite teams well under Chris Finch. And that’s especially true at home. This Minnesota team is a lot better than people think, and this is a chance for the group to prove that. The Celtics could also be without Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis. Both are questionable.
Warriors ML (-148 – 1.5 units) vs. 76ers – Joel Embiid will likely be out there for the Sixers, but will Paul George play the second night of a back-to-back? Philadelphia played an intense game against Sacramento last night, so the team could opt to be cautious with its injury-prone star. And overall, I’m expecting all of the non-Embiid Sixers to be pretty tired here. So, we just need some injury report luck in this spot, as this play will have little to no chance if Stephen Curry sits out. He’s questionable tonight. But it does seem like he’ll be out there, and this is a spot in which Golden State should be able to get back in the win column.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 142-142-1 (-0.37 units)
