The 2024-25 NBA season is underway. Make sure you check out the fantastic work of Jonathan Von Tobel, who will be writing NBA features for us twice per week this year. And try to listen to A Numbers Game every morning, as Kelley Bydlon often dishes out his favorite NBA picks. But I’ll be giving out NBA best bets and player props here as often as possible, and I’ll also occasionally write up features on big news that shakes up the league. So, make sure you check out my work throughout the season. With that out of the way, let’s get into some NBA best bets and NBA player props for Monday, November 18th. Also, make sure you check out the picks page (linked right below) before games tip off. I occasionally add picks throughout the day.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on November 18th
NBA Best Bets Today – November 18th
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 pm ET
It looks like the Bucks will be getting Damian Lillard back tonight, so Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to have his sidekick in a very winnable game. Houston absolutely crushed me on Sunday, as I took Chicago +4.5 and also sprinkled the Bulls to win on the moneyline. I probably should have just opted to tease Chicago, as I would have had it if I went with +36.5. But all jokes aside, this is still a Rockets team that I really don’t trust on the road. Under Ime Udoka, Houston is 18-29 straight-up and 20-26-1 against the spread when playing away from home. And while the team was favored last night, the Rockets are underdogs tonight. That triggers an even more concerning trend, as Houston is just 6-26 SU and 12-19-1 ATS as a road underdog under Udoka. On top of all of that, this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Rockets, and it’s also their third game in four days. And they’re facing one of the most well-rested teams in the league. The Bucks didn’t play on Sunday, and their game on Saturday came after a two-day break.
As far as the on-court matchup goes, Houston doesn’t have anybody that can cover Antetokounmpo — and that’s especially true of this red-hot version of the Greek Freak. Sure, there’s nobody in the league that has a great matchup for him. But this is a really troubling one for the Rockets. He’s just way too quick and strong for Jabari Smith Jr. I’m also expecting Lillard to absolutely torch Fred VanVleet.
I also mentioned it in the Bulls writeup yesterday, but this Rockets team really does not shoot the 3-ball well. And while I thought that would harm Houston against a trigger-happy Chicago team, that wasn’t the case. But Milwaukee might be able to light Houston up. Between Lillard, Brook Lopez, Gary Trent Jr. and whatever spot minutes AJ “Dairy Bird” Green plays, the Bucks will be looking to launch some 3s — even if that might make Rivers’ eye start to twitch.
Bet: Bucks -2.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 pm ET
Not only are the Hawks currently without DeMar DeRoan and Malik Monk, but it also looks like Domantas Sabonis will miss tonight’s game. The big man is listed as doubtful for this one, leaving Sacramento with very little outside of De’Aaron Fox and Keegan Murray. That could be problematic against this Atlanta team. The Hawks are going to throw Dyson Daniels on Fox in this one, and the 21-year-old is going to hound the Kings star right off the bat. Of course, Fox is averaging 54.5 points per game over the last two games (that was not a typo), so there really is no such thing as shutting him down completely. But Daniels is 6-foot-7, has a good combination of strength and foot speed, and he’s physical. So, he’ll at least make Fox work, which could wear the lefty down by the end of the game. And with Murray, the Hawks have the length of Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson to get out and contest his shots. Again, that might not mean that Atlanta will shut Murray down, but the team does have the personnel to make things tough on Sacramento in key moments.
Offensively, the Hawks should be able to find some success here. I know last night’s loss to the Blazers was ugly, but Atlanta is still a dangerous offensive team because of the presence of Trae Young. And Young is now surrounded by good athletes and several players that can create for themselves. That said, I like the Hawks to generate good looks against a Kings team that I don’t quite buy into defensively.
I know I generally like to fade teams on the second nights of back-to-backs, and I’m doing so in the Rockets-Bucks matchup. However, this Atlanta team is young and feisty, so the group should be ready to go here. And Sacramento is just so shorthanded that I couldn’t help myself.
Also, I mentioned Daniels earlier, but I left out that the talented wing is averaging 3.8 steals per game this year. And his ball pressure is a big part of the reason that Atlanta is second in the league in steals per game (10.5). Well, under head coach Mike Brown, Sacramento is just 3-4 ATS when facing teams that average at least 9.0 steals per game. So, the Kings might not be comfortable with having Daniels and Co. right up in their grills tonight.
Bet: Hawks +5 (-112 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – November 18th
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
I played Alex Sarr to go Over his PRA total against the Pistons last night. It did not go well. Sarr put a huge dent in the number in the first half, but he played really poorly in the third quarter and the Wizards got absolutely blown out. So, Sarr didn’t see much action in the fourth. However, Detroit is still a team you want to target when it comes to player props, as the Pistons do struggle to contain opposing centers. That said, I’m going back to this play with Nikola Vucevic, who is much more reliable and is actually averaging a combined 32.8 points, rebounds and assists per game this year. And he’s doing so despite a pitiful performance in which he finished with nine points, six rebounds and two assists in a loss to Houston last night.
Vucevic is just a tough matchup for Jalen Duren and the rest of the Pistons bigs. He’s capable of spacing the floor, but he can also score around the basket. And he’s physical on the glass, so he won’t back down from Duren when fighting for rebounds. On top of that, the Bulls use Vucevic as a playmaking hub rather frequently, so he can easily rack up assist numbers.
Last year, Vucevic also happened to dominate this Detroit team. In four games, he averaged 21.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game against the Pistons. And while that might not sound crazy, he had 12 points, four rebounds and one assist against Detroit in his first meeting with the team last year. That was because he got into foul trouble. So, in the final three games, he was unstoppable and stuffed the heck out of the stat sheet. I’m looking for him to do just that here.
Bet: Vucevic Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists Over (-125)
Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 pm ET
Another Suns game, another game without Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant. As a Suns fan, it’s getting a little frustrating. But as a handicapper/bettor, it does mean more opportunities elsewhere. And that’s why I’m playing Tyus Jones to go Over his 16.5 total in combined points and assists tonight. Jones is actually averaging 10.6 points and 6.6 assists per game this year, so this is asking him to do something he can do with ease. However, he’ll be attempting to do it with bigger minutes and a bigger on-ball role.
Another reason I love this is that I anticipate Orlando putting Jalen Suggs, the team’s best perimeter defender, on Devin Booker at some point. It might not start that way, but Booker is a little too quick for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. That could lead to a switch that puts Suggs on Booker for a majority of this game. And if that happens, Phoenix will have no choice but to run a lot of pick-and-rolls with Jones operating as the lead ball handler. And even if that’s not the case, one of the Suns’ most popular actions this year has Jones operating as a screener for Booker. That brings two defenders to Booker, who then gives it to Jones as a roller. From there, Jones has the ball right near the paint and he has it in a 4-on-3 situation. That should mean some floaters, or some kicks to open shooters.
Jones is also coming off a game in which he had 13 points and 11 assists against the Timberwolves, and that was a game that was played with the same group of guys we’ll see tonight. So, I don’t see this playing out too differently.
Bet: Jones Over 16.5 Points + Assists (-125)
Teasers/Parlays/Late Added Plays
Nothing yet.
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2024-25 NBA Record: 58-52 (+6.82 units)
