Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AI’s Takes of the Day
Following Bill Adee’s lead from recent VSiN newsletters, I’ve decided to run these reports through an online AI service to get that perspective. AI’s record starting January 30th: 39-30-1 (56.5%). Here are today’s results:
– IND-ATL OVER 242.5
DK Betting Split System #13, ATL scheduling trend, and recent head-to-head trend all favor OVER
– BROOKLYN (-4.5 at CHA)
Several DK Betting Split Systems and team strength systems favor BKN + streak system #2 (70%+ win rate) favors BKN
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 of the Pelicans-Rockets head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8 vs. NOP)
* Over the total is 15-2 in the last 17 of Indiana-Atlanta head-to-head series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-ATL (o/u at 242.5)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-7 vs. LAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, WASHINGTON, INDIANA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOME TEAMS – CHARLOTTE ML, HOUSTON ML, MIAMI ML, MILWAUKEE ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
These last three systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-TOR, CHI-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-ATL
UNDER – NOP-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-CHA, ORL-MIL
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures..
We will be tracking 90 top scheduling situations all season long!
* UNDER the total was 121-96-1 (55.8%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/8: Under the total in CHARLOTTE-BROOKLYN
3/8: Under the total in BOSTON-LA LAKERS
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BKN-CHA (o/u at 212), LAL-BOS (o/u at 226.5)
* MIAMI is on a 11-9 SU but 9-11 ATS skid playing at home in a 4th in 6 Days game
3/8: Fade MIAMI vs. Chicago
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-4 vs. CHI)
* ATLANTA is 49-28 OVER the total since 2022 when playing a 4th in 6 Days game
3/8: Over the total in ATLANTA-INDIANA
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-ATL (o/u at 242.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 146-51 SU and 118-78-1 ATS (60.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-7 vs. LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 106-73 SU and 107-69-3 ATS (60.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN (-4.5 at CHA), WASHINGTON (+4 at TOR)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 75-28 SU and 64-38-1 ATS (62.7%).
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-4.5 at CHA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 240-130 SU but 169-193-8 ATS (46.7%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is 33-34-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-7 vs. ORL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 265-140 SU but just 174-219-12 ATS (44.3%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs. DET)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 298-255 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-MIA (o/u at 226)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 33-70 SU but 56-47 ATS (54.4%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 38-12 SU and 34-14-2 ATS (70.8%) in their last 50 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-4.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have also been a great wager when they are a strong defensive team, as those allowing less than 110 PPG are 50-49 SU and 58-37-4 ATS (61.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+7 at MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 238-287-3 ATS (45.3%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 30-131 SU and 70-86-5 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs. BKN), LA LAKERS (+7 at BOS)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 56-77-1 ATS (42.1%) in the next game, including 25-39 ATS (39.1%) on the road over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+7 at BOS)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +3 (+1.8)
2. LA LAKERS +7.5 (+1.6)
3. DETROIT +6 (+1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4.5 (+3.5)
2. MIAMI -4.5 (+2.7)
3. HOUSTON -8 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATLANTA +3 (+2.3)
2. DETROIT +6 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4.5 (+2.7)
2. HOUSTON -8 (+0.4)
Today’s Top BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-MIL OVER 216 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-GSW UNDER 237 (-3.2)
2. CHI-MIA UNDER 226 (-2.2)
3. WAS-TOR UNDER 224 (-1)
Today’s Top UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +3 (+2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MILWAUKEE -4.5 (+5.7)
2. MIAMI -4.5 (+3.1)
3. HOUSTON -8 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BRK-CHA OVER 211.5 (+3.2)
2. ORL-MIL OVER 216 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-GSW UNDER 237 (-3.8)
2. LAL-BOS UNDER 227 (-2.5)
3. CHI-MIA UNDER 226 (-1.9)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) BROOKLYN at (502) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the BKN-CHA head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS
(503) NEW ORLEANS at (504) HOUSTON
* Favorites are 16-5 ATS in the last 21 of NOP-HOU head-to-head divisional rivalry
Trend Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS
(505) WASHINGTON at (506) TORONTO
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the WSH-TOR head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY UNDER the total
(507) INDIANA at (508) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 15-2 in the last 17 of the IND-ATL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY OVER the total
(509) CHICAGO at (510) MIAMI
* Underdogs are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head matchups between CHI and MIA
Trend Match: PLAY CHICAGO
(511) ORLANDO at (512) MILWAUKEE
* Home teams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the ORL-MIL head-to-head series
Trend Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS
(513) DETROIT at (514) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the DET-GSW head-to-head nonconference series
Trend Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS
(515) LA LAKERS at (516) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the LAL-BOS head-to-head series at Boston
Trend Match: PLAY LA LAKERS ATS
