Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 252-170 in their last 422 tries (+33.97 units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+102 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-132 at KC)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-2 (+13.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-115 at TOR)
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as the day game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 143-103-17 (58.1%) since the end of July 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-BAL (o/u at 10.5), DET-NYY (o/u at 9.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 12)
Trend: AZ is 19-6 (+11.07 units) in the last 25 home divisional games with starter Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-132 vs SF)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 139-112 for -7.03 units and an ROI of -2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-149 vs WSH), SAN DIEGO (+105 at CHC), NY METS (-115 at TOR)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 28-24 for –4.63 units (ROI -8.9%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (+119 at PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 93-121 for +0.20 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it has lost almost 9.75 units the last three weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+135 vs MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 167-219 for -33.32 units. This ROI of -8.6% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at BAL), SAN DIEGO (+105 at CHC)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 141-92 for +31.60 units, an ROI of +13.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-123 vs TEX), NY METS (-115 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 109-139 start for -25.79 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 48-62 for -14.33 units and a solid ROI of -13%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – DETROIT (+119 at NYY), ST LOUIS (+114 at ATL)
3+ games – TEXAS (+102 at CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs SD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 83-85 for +8.38 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CWS), CINCINNATI (+135 at MIL), COLORADO (+135 vs MIA), ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 449-472 but for +28.72 units and an ROI of 3.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CWS), SAN DIEGO (+105 at CHC), NY YANKEES (-143 vs DET), ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 752-984 but for +25.00 units and an ROI of 1.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at BAL), DETROIT (+119 at NYY), WASHINGTON (+119 at BOS), SAN DIEGO (+105 at CHC), MINNESOTA (+113 at HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at AZ)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 391-443 but for +84.57 units and an ROI of 10.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+123 at BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 461-444 (50.9%) for +16.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-149 vs WSH), COLORADO (+135 vs MIA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,130-2,012 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -266.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, LA DODGERS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,162-2,738 (44.1%) for -272.35 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+119 at PHI), CINCINNATI (+135 at MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (+109 at AZ)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 388-194 (66.6%) for +56.35 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-126 vs SD)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 64-40-5 (61.5%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 34-13 Over streak in the last 47).
System Match (PLAY OVER): SD-CHC (o/u at 12)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 143-103-17 (58.1%) since the end of July 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CWS-BAL (o/u at 10.5), DET-NYY (o/u at 9.5), SD-CHC (o/u at 12)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 195-234 SU record of +36.87 units and an ROI of 8.6% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+135 vs MIA)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 229-266 SU but for +45.57 units (ROI: 9.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 at BAL), COLORADO (+135 vs MIA), ATHLETICS (+141 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 192-158 (+11.72 units, ROI: 3.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+102 at CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 252-170 in their last 422 tries (+33.97 units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+102 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-132 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 165-166 (-70.00 units, ROI: -21.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-171 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO -105 (+21 diff), CLEVELAND -103 (+20), WASHINGTON +124 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI -163 (+35 diff), LA DODGERS -171 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TEX-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.9), MIN-HOU OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CWS-BAL UNDER 10.5 (-0.9), DET-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), SF-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), SD-CHC UNDER 12 (-0.5), STL-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.5), LAD-ATH UNDER 11 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) SAN DIEGO (43-41) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (48-38)
Trend: CHC is 12-24 (-14.04 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 vs SD)
(953) PITTSBURGH (43-43) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (48-38)
Trend: PHI is 29-12 (+10.58 units) in the last 41 day game starts by Zack Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-144 vs PIT)
(955) ST LOUIS (44-38) at (956) ATLANTA (49-34)
Trend: STL is 31-15 (+9.92 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at ATL)
(957) CINCINNATI (39-45) at (958) MILWAUKEE (52-31)
Trend: CIN is 11-4 (+11.32 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trend: CIN is 9-5 (+5.75 units) on the road in Divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+135 at MIL)
Trend: Over the total is 25-17-1 (+6.30 units) in CIN road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-MIL (o/u at 9)
(961) SAN FRANCISCO (35-50) at (962) ARIZONA (43-42)
Trend: AZ is 19-6 (+11.07 units) in the last 25 home divisional games with starter Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-132 vs SF)
(963) CHICAGO-AL (45-39) at (964) BALTIMORE (39-48)
Trend: BAL is 36-17 (+14.85 units) in the last 53 home games with starter Dean Kremer
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs CWS)
Trend: Over the total is 24-12-2 (+10.80 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-BAL (o/u at 10.5)
(967) DETROIT (37-49) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (48-37)
Trend: DET is 14-28 (-16.54 units) on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+119 at NYY)
(969) TAMPA BAY (49-33) at (970) KANSAS CITY (35-51)
Trend: KC is 6-17 (-12.73 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+109 vs TB)
(971) MINNESOTA (41-46) at (972) HOUSTON (43-45)
Trend: Over the total is 31-13-5 (+16.70 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
(973) WASHINGTON (44-43) at (974) BOSTON (37-47)
Trend: WSH is 32-13 (+14.59 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at BOS)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (36-50) at (976) TORONTO (40-46)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 16-2 (+13.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-115 at TOR)
(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-30) at (978) ATHLETICS (40-46)
Trend: ATH is 28-15 (+8.27 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+1.5 vs LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #33: Cincinnati at Milwaukee, Mon 6/29-Thu 7/2
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 37-13 (74%, +21.99 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 44%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-163 vs CIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-163 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): SAN DIEGO (+105 at CHC), TORONTO (-105 vs NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-149 vs WSH), TORONTO (-105 vs NYM), LA DODGERS (-171 at ATH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-149 vs WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-BOS (o/u at 9.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, July 3)
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