The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 239-128 SU but just 156-200-11 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-3.5 at SAS) 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 13-21 SU and 7-27 ATS skid entering the ’24-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs OKC) 

* Over the total is 27-13 (67.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
11/2: OVER the total in DENVER-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs. GSW)

* SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the series with MIN
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic NBA betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last two seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 489-433 ATS (53%) over the last season-and-a-half. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, SACRAMENTO, MEMPHIS, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 1-1/2 seasons, that group produced a 156-117 ATS record (57.1%). This lot of 273 games was only 13.1% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 242-201 ATS (54.6%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were 2.8% improved in these more-rare contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last season-and-a-half, with handle groups of that size boasting a 280-233 ATS record, good for 54.6%. This is another 2.8% improvement on the overall majority figures.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, PHOENIX, OKLAHOMA CITY 

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority money line handle was on a team in a divisional matchup last season, this majority group went 177-84 outright on handle for +30 units, an ROI of 11.5%. This ROI is a notable improvement over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): CLEVELAND, MIAMI, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: When the majority handle was on road underdogs for a money line wager over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has done well, going 86-138 but for +19.67 units and an ROI of +8.8%. It takes patience to wager something that wins only 38% of the time, but the reward is there.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): GOLDEN STATE, CLEVELAND, PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 97-22 SU but for -46.6 units, an ROI of -39.2%. while majority number of bets groups have gone 101-22 SU but for -43.6 units, an ROI of -35.4%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON ML 

These last two systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last year-and-a-half, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 263-205, good for 56.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 226-198 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit better at 234-194 (54.7%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIN-SAS, GSW-HOU

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long. 

* Teams playing on 3rd Straight Home game were 66-31 SU and 58-36-3 ATS (61.7%) hosting teams playing a A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/2: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11 vs BOS)

11/2: LA CLIPPERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs OKC) 

* Road teams playing an A2A b2b game are 24-37 SU but 35-27-1 ATS (56.5%) facing hosts playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last four seasons.
11/2: BOSTON at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-11 at CHA)

11/2: OKLAHOMA CITY at La Clippers
System Match: PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at LAC) 

* Home teams playing a H2H b2b game were 35-33 SU and 40-28 ATS (58.8%) hosting teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last two seasons.
11/2: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11 vs. BOS)

11/2: TORONTO vs. Sacramento
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+8 vs. SAC) 

* Host teams playing a 4th Straight Home are 32-15 SU and ATS (68.1%) hosting teams playing in an A2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
11/2: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11 vs. BOS)

* Home teams playing in a 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario were 23-14 SU and 25-12 ATS (67.6%) last season hosting teams a 3rd in 4 Days game.
11/2: CHARLOTTE vs. Boston
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+11 vs. BOS)

11/2: LA CLIPPERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs. OKC)

* Hosts playing in an A2H b2b game scenario are 15-25 SU and 14-25-1 ATS (35.9%) since the start of last season hosting teams playing on One Day Rest.
11/2: FADE DENVER vs. Utah
System Match: FADE DENVER (-10.5 vs. UTA)

* Over the total was 79-62 (56%) over the last three seasons when the road team was on an A2A b2b and the host team was playing a 4th in 6 Days game.
11/2: Over the total in SACRAMENTO-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)

* Over the total was 82-56 (59.4%) over the last four seasons when the home team was on a H2H b2b and the opponent was playing a 3rd Straight Road game.
11/2: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)

11/2: OVER the total in TORONTO-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)

* Over the total was 35-23 (60.3%) over the last three seasons when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing an A2A b2b game.
11/2: OVER the total in CHARLOTTE-BOSTON
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231.5)

11/2: OVER the total in TORONTO-SACRAMENTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 234.5)

* OVER the total was 42-33 (56%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on OneDayRest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
11/2: OVER the total in MILWAUKEE-CLEVELAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 232)

11/2: OVER the total in PHOENIX-PORTLAND
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 225)

11/2: OVER the total in SAN ANTONIO-MINNESOTA
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 213.5) 

* Over the total is 27-13 (67.5%) since the start of last season when the home team was on A2H b2b and the road team was playing a OneDayRest game.
11/2: OVER the total in DENVER-UTAH
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* LA CLIPPERS are on a 13-21 SU and 7-27 ATS skid entering the 2024-25 season playing a 3rd in 4 days game
11/2: FADE LA CLIPPERS vs. Oklahoma City
System Match: FADE LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 vs. OKC)

* MILWAUKEE is on a 30-33 SU and 19-43-1 ATS skid entering 2024-25 when playing on standard One Day Rest
11/2: FADE MILWAUKEE vs. Cleveland
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs. CLE) 

* UTAH is on a 35-19 Over the total run when playing on the road with OneDayRest
11/2: OVER the total in UTAH-DENVER
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 221)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 132-44 SU and 108-67-1 ATS (61.7%) run.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs. GSW) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last four seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 84-70 (54.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 159-133 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 226-158 (58.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in BOS-CHA (o/u at 231.5), PLAY OVER in POR-PHX (o/u at 225), PLAY UNDER in UTA-DEN (o/u at 221)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last four seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 198-118 SU, but 141-170-5 ATS (45.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 28-32-1 ATS.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-5.5 at LAC)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 111-116 SU but 116-96-5 ATS (54.7%), including 84-50-1 ATS when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 vs SAC)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 239-128 SU but just 156-200-11 ATS (43.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-3.5 at SAS) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 269-221 (54.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-CHA (o/u at 231.5)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing and are on a 161-134 SU and 167-120-8 ATS (58.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+11 vs. BOS)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 28-57 SU but 45-40 ATS (52.9%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs. CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 3.8% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (162-181 ATS, 47.2%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (223-214 ATS, 51%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs. CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 62-74 SU and 74-60-3 ATS (55.2%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+8 vs. SAC)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+2.1)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+1.6)
3. CHARLOTTE +11 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIAMI -9.5 (+2.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+1.9)
3. SACRAMENTO -8 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+9.1)
2. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.8)
3. TORONTO +8 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.8)
2. MEMPHIS -1 (+0.6)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIA-WSH OVER 223 (+2.2)
2. OKC-LAC OVER 220.5 (+1.6)
3. GSW-HOU OVER 217 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CLE-MIL UNDER 232 (-4.4)
2. POR-PHX UNDER 225 (-3.8)
3. SAC-TOR UNDER 234.5 (-1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO +3.5 (+1.6)
2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+1.5)
3. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 (+2.0)
2. SACRAMENTO -8 (+1.7)
3. MIAMI -9.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GSW-HOU OVER 217 (+4.3)
2. OKC-LAC OVER 220.5 (+2.7)
3. MIA-WSH OVER 223 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. POR-PHX UNDER 225 (-4.8)
2. CLE-MIL UNDER 232 (-4.3)
3. MEM-PHI UNDER 223.5 (-2.2) 

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(519) BOSTON at (520) CHARLOTTE
* BOSTON is 7-2 ATS in L9 games versus CHA
System Match: PLAY BOSTON ATS

(521) SACRAMENTO at (522) TORONTO
* ROAD TEAMS are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of SAC-TOR series
System Match: PLAY SACRAMENTO ATS 

(525) MINNESOTA at (526) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the series with MIN
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS 

(527) GOLDEN STATE at (528) HOUSTON
* GOLDEN STATE is 6-1 ATS in the last seven visits to Houston
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS 

(529) CLEVELAND at (530) MILWAUKEE
* FAVORITES are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the CLE-MIL rivalry but did lose last time
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS 

(533) PORTLAND at (534) PHOENIX
* UNDER the total is 4-1 in the last five of the POR-PHX series in Phoenix
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(535) UTAH at (536) DENVER
* UNDER the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the UTA-DEN divisional series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total 

(537) OKLAHOMA CITY at (538) LA CLIPPERS
* HOME TEAMS are 8-1 ATS in the last nine of OKC-LAC matchups
System Match: PLAY LA CLIPPERS ATS

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