Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 Pick, Prediction, Odds
On Monday, May 18, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Spurs owned the Thunder during the regular season, but this is when Oklahoma City plays its best ball. The Thunder are the defending champions for a reason, and they’ll be amped up playing in front of their fans at the Paycom Center. How will the Spurs deal with that? Find out in our Spurs vs. Thunder betting preview. Also check out our VSiN NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our NBA postseason content.
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How To Watch Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1
When: 8:30 pm ET on Monday, May 18
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Channel: NBC/Peacock
Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 pm ET on Sunday, May 17
Moneyline: Thunder -250, Spurs +205
Spread: Thunder -6.5 (-110), Spurs +6.5 (-110)
Total: Over 219.5 (-108), Under 219.5 (-112)
Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 Picks
If you’re looking for a side in this massive Game 1, it’s hard to turn away from the defending champions. Under Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City is 39-26 against the spread as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The Thunder are also 5-3 ATS in Game 1s under Daigneault. Oklahoma City also comes into this game having not played since May 11. That type of time off can sometimes bother a team, but it was probably useful for the Thunder. They had a good idea of who was going to win the Timberwolves-Spurs series, meaning they had a good week to dive into San Antonio film.
The Thunder will also have Jalen Williams back, which is big with the All-NBA wing having not played since the Suns series. Oklahoma City will be at full strength here, plus the team will be playing in front of a juiced-up crowd. The Thunder have also heard nothing but how good the Spurs were against them during the regular season. All of that, combined with the fact that a trip to the NBA Finals is on the line in this series, should mean a hungry version of Oklahoma City will take the floor on Monday. That should be scary for a talented but inexperienced San Antonio squad. I’ll also note that Dunks & Threes, a website I value for catch-all metrics, has the Thunder winning this game by 10 points.
I will, however, be going to player props only in this one. I put a big play on Oklahoma City to win the NBA title on Saturday, so I’m not sure how involved I’ll be with sides in this series. That said, Thunder -6.5 is strictly a lean for me, even if it could be something I take in the KillerSports NBA Playoff Challenge.
The first prop I like is for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go Over 6.5 assists, and that’s a bigger play for me. I’m also sprinkling Gilgeous-Alexander to have at least eight assists at +186 odds. Through eight games in these playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 7.1 assists per game and 13.6 potential assists per game. On top of that, he’s averaging 9.3 adjusted assists per game, meaning his numbers would be higher with some better luck on his teammates’ quality looks. Opponents are just doing everything they can to keep Gilgeous-Alexander from torching them as a scorer, and the back-to-back regular season MVP has done a great job of taking what’s coming to him. He’s really reading the game at a high level, and I expect that to continue — even in the face of some high-quality perimeter defense.
A second prop I’m playing is Chet Holmgren to finish with at least nine rebounds. Holmgren has had at least nine boards in five consecutive postseason games, and he’s averaging a really good number of rebound chances per game (14.6). Holmgren has always been a good rebounder, but he has turned it up a notch over the last five contests. That should continue in a series in which it’s highly likely Oklahoma City will play him at the five rather often. Of course, it should be noted that Holmgren only averaged 8.0 rebounds per game in four games against the Spurs this season. However, he did that in 28.3 minutes per game. There likely won’t be many games in this series in which Holmgren will play fewer than 33 minutes, which he did twice in the four-game sweep of Los Angeles. With more minutes, more rebounds should come.
One final prop I’m playing is Ajay Mitchell to score at least 13 points. This might not be something I’ll look to much the rest of this series, as we’re not quite sure what Mitchell’s workload will look like with Williams back. But we did just see Mitchell score at least 14 points in seven consecutive playoffs games, and he had at least 20 points in four of the final five of those games. He has been absolutely cooking in isolation, he’s knocking down some outside shots, and he’s looking decisive offensively. He has earned a big role in this Thunder rotation, and I don’t see Daigneault abandoning him. Well, even if Mitchell plays 20 to 25 minutes in this one, he can easily score 13 points. He’s that electric as a shot creator, and he’s not a focal point when thinking about the opposing team’s scouting report.
Bet: Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 Assists (-109 – 1.5 units) & Alt Assists 8+ (+186 – 0.5 units)
Bet: Holmgren Over 8.5 Rebounds (-106)
Bet: Mitchell Over 12.5 Points (-110)
