The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff game on 6/3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 68 games, outright winners have gone 62-3-3 ATS (95.4%) in the NBA Finals.

Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 10-2 SU surge (9-3 ATS, 75%) in NBA Finals Game 1s. The average margin of victory in the nine wins has been 13.9 PPG.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

* Over the total is on an extended 12-2-1 run in Knicks-Spurs series at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

General Trends

Home teams are a better wagering option, particularly recently – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 34-24 SU and 30-26-2 ATS (53.5%) since 2014. This includes an improved 17-11-1 ATS (60.7%) mark in the last 29 games.
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 21-9 SU and 18-11-1 ATS (62.1%) in the last 30 Finals games.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

Winners cover, period – Over the last 12 seasons, and 68 games, outright winners have gone 62-3-3 ATS (95.4%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning UNDER of late – In the 75 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 30 Overs, 43 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 29-13-1 (69%) run in the last 43 games.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

Trends by Line Range

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 29-8 SU and 24-11-2 ATS (68.6%).
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Game Number

NBA Finals series opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 10-2 SU surge (9-3 ATS, 75%) in NBA Finals Game 1s. The average margin of victory in the nine wins has been 13.9 PPG.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Seed Number

#2 seeds have been the worst betting option of any seed – The record of #2 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2014 is 16-22 SU and 15-22-1 ATS (40.5%).
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 91-46 SU and 79-54-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four Seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

* SAN ANTONIO is 13-8 Over the total playing on 3+ Days Rest since February 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for Game 1:

(501) NEW YORK at (502) SAN ANTONIO
* Underdogs are 4-5 SU but 7-2 ATS in the last nine of Knicks-Spurs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (+4.5 at SAS)

* Over the total is on an extended 12-2-1 run in the series at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 196-74 SU and 156-113-1 ATS (58%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Large wins lead to playoff Unders
In the playoffs, NBA teams off a 30-point win have had their next game totals go Under at a 31-20-1 (60.8%) rate in the last five seasons (games also include if the previous game was in the regular season).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 179-222 SU and 175-222-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 37-20-1 (64.9%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 86-113-1 ATS (43.2%) in the next game, including 42-58 ATS (42%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+4.5 at SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the game as of 3:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, & total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
–  Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+4.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK (+4.5 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK ML (+154 at SAS)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – NYK-SAS (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -4.5 (+0.3)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK +4.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-SAS UNDER 218.5 (-2.8)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -4.5 (+0.8)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-SAS UNDER 218.5 (-3.7)

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