The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA playoff games on 5/24 and 5/25. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 12-5 SU and ATS (70.6%) in their last 17, including 2-0 ATS last year.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs OKC)

* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Thunder-Spurs set at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 219.5)

* Nine of the last 12 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%).
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at CLE)

Trends by Line Range

Most road favorites have been very vulnerable – Road favorites of 7.5 points or fewer are just 14-13 SU and 9-17-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 27 tries in the Conference Finals, including six straight ATS losses.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 at CLE)

Last Game Trends

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last five conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 31-27 SU and 35-22-1 ATS (61.4%) in their 58 follow-up games.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs OKC), CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs SAS)

Trends by Game Number

Home team Game Fours not down 0-3 are strong plays – Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 12-5 SU and ATS (70.6%) in their last 17, including 2-0 ATS last year.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs OKC)

Teams facing elimination already in Game Four have generally laid down – Conference finals Game Four teams that are facing elimination have gone just 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS (50%) in their last nine tries.
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NYK)

Trends by Seed Number

#1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 41 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5-points or less, #1 seeds are just 18-28 SU and 18-27-1 ATS (40%).
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at SAS)

#2 seeds are solid chalk wagers – Conference finals #2 seeds are on a 31-16 SU and 26-21 ATS (55.3%) run as favorites.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs OKC)

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same-series game, going 20-17 SU and 23-13-1 ATS (63.9%) in their last 37 tries.
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NYK)

#3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 12-24 SU and 13-22-1 ATS (37.1%) in the follow-up contest.
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 at CLE)

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

Road teams looking to close out series have fared well – Nine of the last 12 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 9-4 SU and 8-4-1 ATS (66.7%).
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at CLE)

Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 42 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 13 seasons, and outright winners are 39-2-1 ATS (95.1%).

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 106-22 SU and 75-50-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+2.5 at SAS)

* CLEVELAND is just 27-31 SU and 19-39 ATS (32.8%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NYK)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 104-66 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): OKC-SAS (o/u at 219.5), NYK-CLE (o/u at 217.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for the games:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

(555) OKLAHOMA CITY at (556) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Thunder-Spurs set at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 219.5)

Monday, May 25, 2026

(557) NEW YORK at (558) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Knicks-Cavs series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-CLE (o/u at 217.5)
* Home teams are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS in the last nine of overall set as well
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs NYK)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 85-113-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game, including 41-58 ATS (41.4%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-2.5 at CLE)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for the games as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Sunday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and an ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5%, and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-SAS, NYK-CLE

NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +2.5 (+1.4)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.4)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +2.5 (+0.5)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.4)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NYK-CLE OVER 217.5 (+0.2)

TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-SAS UNDER 219.5 (-0.9)

UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND +2.5 (+2.1)

UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+0.1)

TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-SAS UNDER 219.5 (-0.9)
2. NYK-CLE UNDER 217.5 (-0.1)

Previous articleVegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche Game 3: NHL Expert Picks on Sunday, May 24
Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR