Tuley’s Takes: NBA Finals Best Bets
We’ve been going through playoff withdrawals in the Tuley’s Takes home office with no games since Saturday’s Game 7 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals, but we’re excited for the NBA Finals starting Wednesday night.
We didn’t fare that well in the conference finals round but did OK with the San Antonio Spurs, not only covering the majority of the games as expected, but actually knocking off the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder four games to three. We didn’t fare as well with the Cleveland Cavaliers getting swept 4-0 by the New York Knicks – I’ve paid for not believing in this Knicks team – and not covering a single game (at least I followed my usual rule of passing when a team is trailing 3-0 as the Cavs were routed 130-93).
Favorites went 7-4 SU and ATS in the conference finals (so I could have led with that and you woulda known I didn’t do too well). Home teams were only 6-5 SU and ATS, with the difference being that the Cavaliers were favored by 3 at home in Game 3 with the Knicks rolling to a 121-108 win. All games in the conference round were covered by the winner as either the chalk covered or the underdog pulled an outright upset.
Let’s look at the NBA Finals, and I’ll give my “takes” and a map on how I plan to bet the individual games in the best-of-seven series.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Series odds: Spurs -190 / Knicks +165
Game 1 odds: Spurs -4.5, Over/Under 218.5
It was assumed all along that the Western Conference victor would be favored over the East, even with the Knicks streamrolling everyone with an 11-game winning streak heading into the Finals. I obviously had a high opinion of this Spurs team going against the Thunder and still feel they’re the better team and will prevail in this series (though I’m not looking to lay close to -200).
However, I am respecting the Knicks a lot more and have already bet them (+5) in Wednesday night’s Game 1 before the line dropped. This looks like a very competitive series to me and believe we’ll get more dogs covering in close losses, so I’m planning to bet the dog in every game, and that includes expecting the Spurs to be short road dogs in Games 3, 4 and 6 (if necessary, which I assume the series will go at least that long) at Madison Square Garden.
Jalen Brunson has been carrying the Knicks, averaging 26.9 points and 6.6 assists per game in the postseason, but the Spurs counter with quantity vs. quality with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper – and also have Victor Wembanyama, who I give the edge over Karl-Anthony Towns.
Back to Game 1, the Knicks have narrowed the gap with their recent form, which is why I’m willing to fade the Spurs in Game 1. New York also went 2-1 in games against the Spurs this season (1-1 on the regular-season schedule and 1-0 in the NBA Cup Final, which they won 124-113). The only hesitation I would have is that the Knicks’ narrowest win over the Cavaliers was in Game 1 off of a nine-day layoff after sweeping the 76ers, but both teams are well-rested, so I don’t think there’s any “rust vs. rest” argument to worry about.
Win or lose, I’ll probably be on the Knicks in Game 2 again as dogs. If they lose Game 1, I might pass Game 2 as that would put them in an “anti-swagger role” after having their 11-game winning streak snapped, and I usually pass on teams in that spot. I’m expecting this to be a back-and-forth series where the zig-zag (aka “loser of the last”) comes into play as well, so that would probably override my “anti-swagger” concerns if they drop Game 1.
As stated above, we’re expecting the Knicks to be favored at home and will be back on the Spurs in those games. It should be a great series, perhaps better than the Spurs-Thunders series as we’re hoping for fewer blowouts (unless, of course, it’s our bets that are winning easily!).
NBA Finals Best Bets: Knicks plus points in Game 1, and probably in Game 2 as well, and then the underdog in the rest of the games (expecting to be road teams in all cases).
