Tuley’s Takes: NBA Playoffs Conference Finals Best Bets
We didn’t have as much success in the second round of the NBA playoffs here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we’re looking forward to two compelling series in the conference championship round that starts Monday.
We have the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, led by the second-straight MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, facing the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Final that a lot of people have been looking forward to for a long time with the top two seeds (Spurs were eight games ahead of No. 3 Denver) while the New York Knicks face the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 on Tuesday night after the Cavs routed the Pistons in their Game 7 on Sunday night.
After a very successful first round with my “map” of plays on the individual games going 17-11 ATS (60.7%), and with the Lakers and 76ers at juicy series bets, I gave back more of my profits in the second round as my “map” plays were a woeful 4-10 ATS heading into the Cavaliers +4.5 on Sunday night and at least got back to 5-10 ATS in the second round (and back over .500 overall at 22-21 ATS), plus cashed on the Cavs +105 series bet.
But here’s hoping we’ve learned some lessons from watching all this basketball as we apply our “dog or pass” approach to this next round.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Series odds: Thunder -245 / Spurs +215
Game 1 odds: Thunder -6.5, Over/Under 219.5
As I wrote in the intro, most people assumed this would be the matchup in the Western Conference Finals and we got it. I tried to fade both teams (unsuccessfully) with the points in individual games, but I passed on both dogs in the series. I feel the same way here with the Spurs as I believe they can cover the majority of the games, but I’m not willing to pick them to win four games.
The Thunder is clearly the best team in the NBA right now, but with that comes inflated lines from oddsmakers as the public is pretty much willing to back the Thunder right now at any price. And with good reason. In their 4-0 sweep of the Lakers, the Thunder covered as 15.5-point favorites in both Games 1 and 2 at home before covering as 9-point road chalk in Game 3 in L.A. The Thunder did fail to cover as 12.5-point road faves in Game 4 as the Lakers put up a bit of a fight to avoid being swept and covered in the 115-110 loss.
Regardless, that’s not going to keep public bettors from backing the Thunder again here, but we’re hoping to be on the sharp side with the Spurs, led by the freak Victor Wembanyama with a strong supporting cast. Wembanyama’s crew isn’t as strong or as deep as Gilgeous-Alexander & Co., but that’s where taking the points should come into play to give the Spurs a couple of covers in addition to any games they can win outright (home Game 3 and 4 being the most likely).
I’m reluctant to mention the other reason why I love the Spurs plus the points as I was hoping most bettors would ignore it, but the Spurs did go 4-1 vs. the Thunder during the regular season, and that’s all I need to know that they can play with the champs, so getting points is a bonus. Besides, the oddsmakers already know that. I’ve read and heard it mentioned a few times, so it’s no secret, and we have to assume it’s already baked into the line.
NBA Conference Finals Best Bets: San Antonio Spurs +6.5 in Game 1 and in any game as underdogs.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
Series odds: Knicks -260 / Cavaliers +220
Game 1 odds: Knicks -7, Over/Under 217
As stated in the intro, the Cavaliers were the only dog that really treated us right in a pretty chalky second round as favorites went 15-6 SU and 13-8 ATS 61.9%). I’m certainly glad they advanced to this round instead of just covering in Game 7 vs. the Pistons because I’m not as high on the Knicks and probably wouldn’t be backing them if they were facing Detroit in this round.
In fact, while the Knicks have peaked in the playoffs by going 8-2 so far with five wins by 29 or more points and an NBA-playoff high net rating of +20, I’m pleasantly surprised that the Cavs are even bigger underdogs vs. the No. 3-seeded Knicks than they were against the No. 1-seeded Pistons as it gives us a better series price and more wiggle room to cover in the individual games.
While we were happy to report that the Spurs won the season series vs, the Thunder, the Knicks did win two of three games against the Cavaliers, so that doesn’t make our case as well here; however, I will point out that the home team won all three meetings (so this could be a zig-zag series) and I’m also encouraged by the fact the Knicks’ Christmas Day win was by only two points, so that would work for us covering here with the Cavs on the road. In addition, the Cavaliers’ lone win was the only meeting after they acquired James Harden.
These teams haven’t met since that Feb. 24 game in Cleveland, so that’s all we get in head-to-head matchups, but I have no doubt that game is the closest to the teams we’ll see meeting these next two weeks, with Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Harden being enough to overcome Jalen Brunson & Co.
NBA Conference Round Best Bets: Cavaliers +220 to win series, plus +7 in Game 1 and in any game as underdogs.
