NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions and best bets for Game 7 between the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres.
Montreal Canadiens (-105) at Buffalo Sabres (-115)
Total 5.5 (Under, -125)
Game 7
7:30 p.m. ET
There is nothing better than a Game Seven in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Outside of the Canadiens winning Games Two and Three, this series has been a zig-zag. The Sabres forced a Game Seven with their Game Six win Saturday night, scoring seven unanswered goals after the Canadiens built a 3-1 lead in the first period. No bitterness for me, who had the Canadiens team total Over 3.5. What a terrible beat that was.
The Habs are 5-0 in the playoffs off a loss and haven’t lost two in a row since the middle of March (March 14, 15). Montreal goalie, Jakub Dobes, is 18-2-2 this season off a loss (including playoffs) with a goals against average just over two goals per game. The sportsbooks are begging you to play the Over 5.5 goals tonight. Twelve of the last 13 meetings have had a combined six goals or more (Game Five was 3-2), and we had 11 goals in Game Six. But the history of Game Sevens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is why I believe we are seeing the total at 5.5. The Canadiens beat Tampa 2-1 in the only Game Seven of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs, and though all three Game Sevens in last year’s playoffs had a combined six goals or more, going back to the 2021-22 season, 12 of the last 18 Game Sevens have had a combined five goals or less. I am passing on both the side and total tonight and will focus on player props.
With this being a Game Seven, players are going to be more willing to sacrifice their bodies and “eat pucks.” Sabres defenseman Conor Timmins is third in this year’s playoffs with 30 blocked shots. He has had three or more blocked shots in four of the six games in this series. Canadiens defenseman Mike Matheson leads all players with 36 blocked shots. He has had at least two blocked shots in all but one game of this series (Game Six, one block). I will parlay Matheson for two blocks with Timmins for three blocks. Sabres forward Alex Tuch is still looking for his first points in the series, but he does lead the team with 21 shots on goal through the first six games. Tuch has registered three shots on goal or more in four of the last five games. Josh Norris has at least two shots on goal in four of the last five games. Defenseman Rasmus Dahlin has recorded three shots on goal in five of the six games in the series and 13 of his last seventeen games against the Canadiens.
Montreal’s Alex Newhook has had at least three shots on goal in five of the six games in this series. Ivan Demidov is coming off back-to-back games with five shots on goal and has found the back of the net in each game. Sabres rookie Konsta Helenius (pronounced, Hell-A-Noose) has goals in back-to-back games, and we are still getting an outstanding price on his anytime goal and assist.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Conor Timmins 3+ blocked shots (+140) – 1 unit
Alex Newhook 3+ shots on goal (+160) – 1 unit
Dahlin 3+/Newhook 3+ shots on goal (+270) – 1 unit
Tuch 3+/Norris 2+ shots on goal (+170) – 1 unit
Ivan Demidov 3+ shots on goal (+165) – 1 unit
Konsta Helenius anytime goal (+800) – ½ unit
Konsta Helenius Over ½ assist (+425) – ½ unit
