The following NBA betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:40 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. These systems have been updated to show midseason records as well.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. For this season so far, that group is 88-83 ATS (51.5%). If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, DALLAS, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. This year, that group has followed up with a record of 78-71 ATS (52.3%). Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. While the record has dropped a bit, the 1-1/2-year mark is still very profitable.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, PHILADELPHIA

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It is a touch higher and a complete opposite result when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on a side of an ATS wager (home or road), this supermajority group has gone just 92-114 ATS (44.7%) this season, well below the overall performance of all majorities.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last season and a half, DK majority number of bets groups have been successful, as they are 225-199 ATS (52.8%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 50% success rate, they were 2.8% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, DALLAS

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors have won significantly on money line wagering this season. Here are some more detailed specifics, with some losing angles too:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has been on a team in a divisional matchup this season, this majority group has gone 96-41 outright on handle for +24.21 units, an R.O.I. of 17.7%. This same majority on bet volume has also done well, 95-39 for +19.23 units. A 14.4% R.O.I. Both of these R.O.I.s are notable improvements over all other matchups.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, PHILADELPHIA ML, HOUSTON ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: The success of double-digit favorites this season in winning games outright has clearly paid off for NBA bettors. When analyzing majority handle on games in 2023-24 with double-digit point spreads, majority moneyline bettors have backed the favorite in 87 of 89 games, going 80-7 SU for +33.6 units, a R.O.I. of 38.6%. We will recommend backing these teams until something changes, as this can be a very risky strategy.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when less than 60% of handle bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of them favored that total option over the last year-and-a-half, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it “as much,” regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 520 of about 1400 games fit this criteria, but the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 287-231-2, good for 55.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-CHA, BOS-CLE, ATL-NYK, DET-MIA, PHI-BKN, SAS-HOU, IND-DAL, PHX-DEN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total this season has been a touch over 230. In NBA games with extremely low totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors are an impressive 49-25 (66.2%), whole majority number of bets groups are a bit worse but still strong at 43-31 (58.1%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in ORL-CHA, PLAY OVER in BOS-CLE, PLAY UNDER in ATL-NYK, PLAY UNDER in DET-MIA, PLAY UNDER in PHI-BKN

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals this season, or those 240 or higher, majority number of bets groups have gone just 31-53 (36.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER instead in IND-DAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 172-116 SU and 169-111 ATS (60.4%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/5: NEW ORLEANS at Toronto
System Match: PLAY NEW ORLEANS (-9 at TOR)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 54-42 SU and 50-45-1 ATS (52.6%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game last season.
3/5: BROOKLYN vs. Philadelphia
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN (+3 vs PHI)

* Over the total was 99-67 (59.6%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/5: Over the total in TORONTO-NEW ORLEANS
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 228.5)

* Under the total was 91-56-1 (61.9%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/5: Under the total in BROOKLYN-PHILADELPHIA
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* Under the total was 49-45-1 (52.1%) last season when the home team was on H2H b2b and the road team was playing a One Day Rest game.
3/5: UNDER the total in PHILADELPHIA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

Applying Top ‘23-24 NBA Situational Records for the Rest of Season

There is still a lot to be decided in terms of divisional races and which teams will or will not qualify for the postseason. With over 50 games in the books, we know a lot about the teams, specifically what scheduling situations they have been best or worst at so far in the 2023-24 season. With that in mind, I figured I’d share what have been 17 of the most definitive performance records in various scheduling situations so far and where these NBA betting trends will apply the rest of the way.

ATLANTA is 5-13 SU and 3-15 ATS (16.7%) versus teams with current Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/5 at New York
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 at NYK)

NEW YORK has gone 10-1 Under the total (90.9%) at home this season when returning from a road trip in their prior game.
3/5 vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY UNDER in ATL-NYK (o/u at 215.5)

ORLANDO has thrived in the commonplace One Day Rest scheduling scenario this season, going 26-8 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%).
3/5 at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (-8.5 at CHA)

PHOENIX is 8-3 Over the total (72.7%) when playing in the second of consecutive games against non-divisional conference opponents in the 2023-24 season.
3/5 at Denver
System Match: PLAY OVER in PHX-DEN (o/u at 223.5)

SAN ANTONIO has gone 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) this season against teams currently with mid-level Steve Makinen Power Ratings of 95-99.5.
3/5 at Houston
System Match: FADE SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at HOU)

The following are some of the top team-specific NBA betting trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* ATLANTA is 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario over the last two seasons
3/5: Fade ATLANTA at New York
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+3 at NYK)

* BROOKLYN is 25-14 Under the total in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/5: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* BROOKLYN was 19-10 Under the total at home in the 4th in 6 Days scenario last season
3/5: Under the total in PHILADELPHIA-BROOKLYN
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 215.5)

* TORONTO is 31-10 SU and 29-12 ATS in the 3rd Straight Home game scenario over the last two seasons
3/5: TORONTO vs. New Orleans
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+9 vs NOP)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five NBA betting trend systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 77-59 (56.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 144-113 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 177-134 (56.9%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DET-MIA (o/u at 217)NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These NBA betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last 4+ seasons unless noted.

135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 185-113 SU but 133-161-4 ATS (45.2%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored. The record versus divisional foes among these games is a concerning 26-32 ATS.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Back-to-back scoring outburst could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 62-46 SU and 61-45-2 ATS (57.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 24-17 ATS as underdogs.
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 206-227 SU and 194-235-4 ATS (45.2%) in the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 217-215 SU and 194-226-10 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last 3-1/2 seasons.
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 115-140 SU and 114-135-6 ATS (45.8%) in that next contest over the last 5-1/2 seasons. (BOS 3/5)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 146-117 SU and 153-103-7 ATS (59.8%) run.
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+8 vs BOS), PLAY DENVER (-9.5 vs PHX)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine NBA betting trend systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 82-15 SU but 40-55-3 ATS (42.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: Fade DENVER (only if they become a double-digit favorite vs LAL, -9.5 currently)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 47-13 SU and 37-21-2 ATS (63.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 4.4% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (153-170 ATS, 47.4%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (207-193 ATS, 51.8%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING CHARLOTTE (+8.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 174-216 ATS (44.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 23-100 SU and 51-69-3 ATS (42.5%).
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 38-55 ATS (40.9%) in the next game, including 16-29 ATS (35.5%) on the road over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-8 at CLE)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+2.2), 2. SAN ANTONIO +7.5 (+1.2), 3. DETROIT +11.5 (+1.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -8.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+2.7), 2. CHARLOTTE +8.5 (+2.0), 3. BROOKLYN +3 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -7.5 (+1.5), 2. NEW ORLEANS -9.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BKN OVER 215 (+3.6), 2. NOP-TOR OVER 228 (+1.3), 3. PHX-DEN OVER 223.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-CHA UNDER 207.5 (-4.2), 2. BOS-CLE UNDER 215.5 (-1.0) and SAS-HOU UNDER 228 (-1.0)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +8 (+4.0), 2. BROOKLYN +3 (+1.8), 3. INDIANA +4.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.5), 2. NEW YORK -3 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BKN OVER 215 (+6.2), 2. NOP-TOR OVER 228 (+2.6), 3. ATL-NYK OVER 215.5 (+2.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-CHA UNDER 207.5 (-4.6)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(513) ORLANDO at (514) CHARLOTTE
* ORLANDO is 6-2 ATS in the last eight at Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(515) BOSTON at (516) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six of the BOS-CLE series
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND ATS

(517) NEW ORLEANS at (518) TORONTO
* Home teams have won the last four ATS in the NOP-TOR series
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(519) ATLANTA at (520) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is on a 3-0 ATS streak versus Atlanta
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(521) DETROIT at (522) MIAMI
* DETROIT is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six visits to Miami
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(523) PHILADELPHIA at (524) BROOKLYN
* PHILADELPHIA has won the last six ATS at Brooklyn
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA ATS

(525) SAN ANTONIO at (526) HOUSTON
* Favorites are on a 4-0 ATS streak in the SAN-HOU series
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON ATS

(527) INDIANA at (528) DALLAS
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the IND-DAL series in Dallas
System Match: PLAY OVER the total

(529) PHOENIX at (530) DENVER
* DENVER has won the last four ATS hosting Phoenix
System Match: PLAY DENVER ATS

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