The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, January 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022-23 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 115-88 ATS (56.6%) last season. In other words, if you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in a NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, NEW YORK, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: The number from system #1 is a little higher for road wagers. When 65% or more of the handle was on the road side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 95-69 ATS (57.9%) last season. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. This group was pretty sharp last season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, MIAMI

At this point, unlike the football studies I conducted, it’s safe to assume that being part of the majority handle of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers is a relatively sound strategy.

The following two systems show some successes that majority groups at DraftKings enjoyed when looking at bet volume:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: We saw earlier that the supermajority benchmark for handle success on ATS was wagers at 63%. It’s a touch higher when analyzing number of bets. When 69% or more of the number of bets was on the home side of an ATS wager, this supermajority group was 81-55 ATS (59.6%) last season, leaps and bounds above the overall success of all majorities.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA nonconference games (East versus West) of 2023, DK majority number of bets groups were highly successful, as they went 134-110 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.4% success rate, they were 3.5% improved on these rarer contests.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, NEW YORK, BOSTON, NEW ORLEANS, BROOKLYN

The overall numbers shown earlier detailed that majority bettors took heavy losses on moneyline wagering last season. Here are some more detailed specifics:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle was on double-digit favorites in a 2023 NBA game, this majority groups was 92-22 outright but lost -55.45 units, an R.O.I. of -48.6%. This significant loss rate shows how losing just over one of every five games can still be damaging.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, BOSTON ML, NEW ORLEANS ML

A winning angle for majority handle moneyline bettors:

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: When the majority handle was on underdogs for a moneyline wager, this majority group actually produced profits, going 54-82 for +5.5 units and an R.O.I. of 4.0%. This doesn’t seem to be a really significant amount, but when compared to the overall losses of -68.8 units, it represents a significant improvement.  Again, it is quite rare, though, as there were 771 games in our sample.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO ML, DALLAS ML, GOLDEN STATE ML

These last three systems involve totals.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best and most frequent angles I was able to uncover was when less than 60% of bettors were backing the Over in an NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When less than 60% of the handle favored that total option, you could almost conclude that they didn’t like it as much, regardless of whether or not it was a majority. Only 271 of the games fit this criteria, but the results were astounding, with Under the total on these games going 163-108, good for 60.1%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CLE, MIA-TOR, ORL-ATL, SAS-BOS, CHA-NOP

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: When a supermajority of 58% or more of the number of bets was on the Under in an NBA game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 40-19 ATS (67.8%). This number for a supermajority is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: In NBA games with extremely high totals last season, or those more than 242, majority handle bettors were 18-7 (72%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER): DAL-LAL

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

We will be tracking 50 top scheduling situations all season long!

NO QUALIFYING GENERAL SCHEDULING SITUATIONS TODAY

Top Team-Specific Scheduling Situation Trends

The following are some of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* GOLDEN STATE is 19-49 SU and 19-49 ATS on the road in the One Day Rest scenario over the last two seasons
1/17: FADE GOLDEN STATE at Utah
System Match: FADE GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 at UTA)

* GOLDEN STATE is 24-9 Over the total in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario over the last two seasons
1/17: OVER the total in UTAH-GOLDEN STATE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 242)

* ORLANDO is 12-7 SU and 17-2 ATS in the 3rd Straight Road game scenario lately
1/17: ORLANDO at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO (+4 at ATL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details five betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last three NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #4:
Double-digit NBA favorites in nonconference games have gone 116-23 SU but just 54-83-2 ATS (39.4%) over the last two seasons.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-11.5 at DET), FADE BOSTON (-16 vs SAS), FADE NEW ORLEANS (-12 vs CHA)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last three seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 69-55 (55.6%). In nonconference games, Over the total was 124-100 (55.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 170-117 (59.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OVER in MIN-DET (o/u at 223), PLAY OVER in SAS-BOS (o/u at 237.5), PLAY OVER in CHA-NOP (o/u at 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last three seasons unless noted.

BIG TIME OFFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

Teams that scored 134 points or more in any given game have had trouble duplicating that success in their next outing, as they are just 212-215 SU and 184-233-10 ATS (44.1%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-4 at CLE)

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 246-192 (56.2%) since 2021.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in GSW-UTA (o/u at 242), PLAY UNDER in DAL-LAL (o/u at 244), PLAY UNDER in CHA-NOP (o/u at 229.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 186-206 SU and 169-221-2 ATS (43.3%) in the next game.
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (o/u at 223)

Similarly, NBA teams that have made 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have struggled the next time out, going just 201-194 SU, but 177-206-12 ATS (46.2%) the next game over the last three seasons.
System Matches: FADE PORTLAND (+6 vs BKN), FADE MILWAUKEE (-4 at CLE), FADE CLEVELAND (+4 vs MIL)

UNUSUAL DEFENSIVE PERFORMANCES

NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 106-74 SU and 107-70-3 ATS (60.5%).
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (-1.5 at TOR)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details nine betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
There has been a 6.1% swing in ATS success rate when teams that have lost their last four games or more have taken on losing teams (137-159 ATS, 46.3%) versus when they’ve faced winning teams (194-176 ATS, 52.4%) over the last three seasons.
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING TORONTO (+1.5 vs MIA), CONSIDER PLAYING CHARLOTTE (+12 at NOP), FADE PORTLAND (+6 vs BKN)

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 50-44 SU and 54-38-3 ATS (58.7%) surge.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+1.5 vs MIA)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4 (+4.0), 2. HOUSTON +5 (+1.8), 3. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -12 (+4.8), 2. MIAMI -1.5 (+2.6), 3. LA LAKERS -4 (+2.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +4 (+3.5), 2. HOUSTON +5 (+2.2), 3. CLEVELAND +4 (+1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -16 (+4.2), 2. MIAMI -1.5 (+2.9), 3. LA LAKERS -4 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-TOR OVER 227 (+2.0), 2. CHA-NOP OVER 229.5 (+1.1), 3. MIL-CLE OVER 236.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAL UNDER 244 (-2.4), 2. SAS-BOS UNDER 238.5 (-2.0), 3. BKN-POR UNDER 223 (-1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+3.7), 2. HOUSTON +5 (+2.7), 3. ORLANDO +4 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BOSTON -16 (+4.2) and LA LAKERS -4 (+4.2), 3. MILWAUKEE -4 (+2.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-TOR OVER 227 (+4.0), 2. HOU-NYK OVER 220.5 (+1.6), 3. ORL-ATL OVER 230 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-LAL UNDER 244 (-2.8), 2. BKN-POR UNDER 223 (-2.0), 3. SAS-BOS UNDER 238.5 (-1.7)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) MINNESOTA at (502) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 10-5 ATS vs. Minnesota since 2015
System Match: PLAY DETROIT ATS

(503) MILWAUKEE at (504) CLEVELAND
* Favorites have won the last six ATS in the MIL-CLE series
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE ATS

(505) MIAMI at (506) TORONTO
* TORONTO is on a 6-2 ATS run versus Miami
System Match: PLAY TORONTO ATS

(507) ORLANDO at (508) ATLANTA
* ORLANDO has won the last four ATS vs. Atlanta
System Match: PLAY ORLANDO ATS

(509) HOUSTON at (510) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 vs. Houston
System Match: PLAY NEW YORK ATS

(511) SAN ANTONIO at (512) BOSTON
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the SAN-BOS series
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO ATS

(513) CHARLOTTE at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the CHA-NOP series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total

(515) DALLAS at (516) LA LAKERS
* DALLAS has won 10 of the last 11 ATS versus LA Lakers
System Match: PLAY DALLAS ATS

(517) GOLDEN STATE at (518) UTAH
* GOLDEN STATE is on a 7-1-1 ATS surge versus Utah
System Match: PLAY GOLDEN STATE ATS

(519) BROOKLYN at (520) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of the BRK-POR h2h series
System Match: PLAY BROOKLYN ATS

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