Here is my updated (and final) mock draft for Thursday’s NFL Draft. It is silly season right now with the NFL Draft on Thursday and here is my crack at a mock draft. I have placed a number of wagers on VSiN Primetime (weeknights at 6-9 pm ET) and they can be tracked at vsin.com/picks.
A few notes before jumping into the mock draft:
Top NFL Resources:
Daniels goes #2: While no concrete information has been leaked out of Washington regarding the selection at pick 2, I will follow the smoke and say that LSU’s Jayden Daniels will be the selection.
New England stays at #3: There have been varying reports out of New England about a possibility of a trade. While it sounds like the Patriots will “listen” to offers, I expect them to stay at three and pick North Carolina QB Drake Maye.
No Penix or Nix: There is a lot of smoke around Michael Penix Jr. being a first round selection. There is evening growing buzz that Oregon QB Bo Nix could be first round selection if a team like Denver trades out of #12. While it is the betting favorite to happen, I will give a hat tip to my co-host Jonathan Von Tobel and stay strong here. The over/under on quarterbacks has gone under six of the last seven years and I will be stubborn and say it will happen again.
Byron Murphy first defensive player selected: Alabama’s Dallas Turner has been mocked to Atlanta for the past couple of weeks but NFL Draft insiders including Daniel Jeremiah, Adam Schefter, Jeremy Fowler and Todd McShay have stated to watch out for Texas’ Byron Murphy to hear his name called early on Thursday night.
Trades: It is impossible to predict the trades that will happen on draft night. The over/under at DraftKings was set at 6.5. The most commonly mocked trade is the Vikings moving up to get a quarterback. I am not predicting that to happen. However, Peter Schrager of the NFL Network said on social media “I’m thinking there could be 10 trades or more in tomorrow’s first round. Maybe not at the top, but once we get to that 5-6-7-8-9-10 range, it sounds like things could get wild.”
Daniel Jeremiah, his colleague at the NFL Network, added “To summarize my last 5 phone calls- everyone is moving up for an OT.”
OL > WR: So with that being said, I expect Over 9.5 offensive lineman to be selected in the first round. As for wide receivers, after the big three of Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze, and Malik Nabers are picked, the receivers could be waiting. I expect Texas WR Adonai Mitchell to fall out of the first round. Longhorns teammate WR Xavier Worthy, Georgia Ladd McConkey, or WR Xavier Legette could slip in late but Under 6.5 receivers are likely on Thursday.
NFL Mock Draft 2.0 from Tim Murray
1 Chicago Bears – USC QB Caleb Williams
This is done. It is Caleb Williams. He will be a Bear.
2 Washington Commanders – LSU QB Jayden Daniels
This has been fascinating all during the NFL Draft process. Nothing is leaking from Washington, but NFL insiders continue to state that people in the league believe Daniels will be the pick over Drake Maye. Washington GM Adam Peters said he is not going to trade the pick, so despite reported interest from Las Vegas (and others) to trade up, Daniels will be a Commander.
3 New England Patriots – North Carolina QB Drake Maye
The Patriots said they are willing to listen to offers for the #3 pick. Peter Schrager of the NFL Network said on Monday that he believes New England will ultimately use the #3 pick on a quarterback. Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Network and Albert Breer of SI.com both said recently they expect Drake Maye to be a Patriot.
4 Arizona Cardinals – Ohio St WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
If the top three quarterbacks are off the board, will a team like the Vikings still want or need to trade up with Arizona for JJ McCarthy? Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort has said he will wait until they are “on clock” to field offers. With six picks in the first 90, does Arizona need to trade down? I’ll say they stay at four and pick Harrison. Even though LSU WR Malik Nabers could be the shocking selection here. If the Patriots select Michigan QB JJ McCarthy at #3, the Cardinals will definitely trade out. The Vikings and Giants are reportedly very interested in Maye.
5 Los Angeles Chargers – Alabama OT JC Latham
This is my first tweak from my first mock draft. It is widely being reported that the Chargers will look to trade out of the fifth pick, if they do not, who will they select? My guess would be an offensive tackle. It is believed that Notre Dame OT Joe Alt is the top offensive tackle in this class, but NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah believes Latham fits Jim Harbaugh’s style more.
6 New York Giants – LSU WR Malik Nabers
Despite sniffing around at quarterbacks, the Giants grab one of the elite wide receivers in the draft.
7 Tennessee Titans – Notre Dame OT Joe Alt
This is the most commonly mocked selection out of Caleb Williams to Chicago! It makes too much sense. Tennessee could look to trade down. Alt is also a possibility to go to the Chargers if they keep the pick and don’t trade down.
8 New York Jets (trade with Atlanta) – Washington WR Rome Odunze
I’ll give credit to Luke Swain aka @VegasRefund for this idea from the “Beating the Book” podcast: Jets trade up to pick 8 to select a playmaker in Rome Odunze. GM Joe Douglas would normally want an offensive lineman at pick 10 or to trade down but I think the Jets are in “win now” mode and the Bears are reportedly interested in Odunze.
9 Chicago Bears – Texas DL Byron Murphy
There is a lot of smoke surrounding Byron Murphy rising up draft boards. He was +375 to be a top 10 pick earlier this week and now he is down to -110. With Odunze off the board, I could see the Bears trading back but if they stay at 9, they go with Murphy.
10 Indianapolis Colts (trade with Atlanta Falcons) – Georgia TE Brock Bowers
Now I’m getting a little crazy, but my gut says Brock Bowers will be a top-10 pick. But, if he does not go to the Jets, where could he land? I have Atlanta trading down again this time with Indianapolis. The Colts would be a perfect home for Bowers. I would not bet into the Bowers Over/Under 11.5 market.
11 Minnesota Vikings – Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
Will the Vikings be able to “wait” for McCarthy at 11? It’s possible. The Vikings reportedly do not want to part with the #23 pick. Wouldn’t it be perfect if Minnesota waited for McCarthy to fall in their laps? Does not normally happen with quarterbacks but I will predict it anyway.
12 Denver Broncos – UCLA DE Laiatu Latu
I know the buzz is for Denver to take a quarterback here or trade back. I think the latter is possible with reported interest in offensive tackles in this class. Despite injury concerns, most reports say that Latu has been cleared medically by most teams. Latu has been a riser throughout the draft process and I would not be surprised if he went off the board before Alabama’s Dallas Turner.
13 Las Vegas Raiders – Alabama CB Terrion Arnold
There is a lot of smoke that the Raiders could trade up to get a quarterback or select Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. at #13. Ultimately, I think the Raiders will select Arnold or an offensive lineman at #13.
14 New Orleans Saints – Oregon St OL Taliese Fuaga
The Saints need offensive line help. New Orleans is -400 to select an offensive lineman with their first pick.
15 Atlanta Falcons (from Indianapolis) – Alabama DE Dallas Turner
Atlanta needs to pick a defensive player in this draft. The Falcons pick up some draft capital and arguably the best defensive player in the draft at 15.
16 Seattle Seahawks – Washington OL Troy Fautanu
17 Jacksonville Jaguars – Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell
18 Cincinnati Bengals – Penn St OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
19 Philadelphia Eagles (trade with LA Rams) – Duke OL Graham Barton
While it is believed that the Eagles will target a defensive back, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said on the ‘Ryen Russillo podcast’ he believes Eagles GM Howie Roseman will move up for an offensive lineman. Jeremiah also pointed out Barton’s stock was rising last week. I bet Under 21.5 last week on VSiN Primetime.
20 Pittsburgh Steelers – Georgia OT Armarius Mims
21 Miami Dolphins – Oklahoma OT Tyler Guyton
22 Los Angeles Rams (trade with Eagles) – Florida St Edge Jared Verse
This might be a bit low for Verse, but the Rams could be a good landing spot.
23 Minnesota Vikings – LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr
24 Dallas Cowboys – Arizona OT Jordan Morgan
This might be a bit rich for Morgan, but with the early run of offensive linemen, I expect Morgan to go in the first round. I think he could also go to Arizona at 27 or if Washington trades back in.
25 Green Bay Packers – Alabama DB Kool-Aid McKinstry
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Penn St EDGE Chop Robinson
27 Arizona Cardinals – Missouri DE Darius Robinson
28 Buffalo Bills – Georgia WR Ladd McConkey
29 Detroit Lions – Illinois DL Jer’Zhan Newton
30 Baltimore Ravens – Iowa DB Cooper DeJean
31 Washington Commanders (trade with San Francisco) – BYU OL Kingsley Suamatia
The Commanders have six picks in the first 100 and Adam Peters comes from San Francisco. Washington trading back in for an offensive lineman has been widely reported.
32 Kansas City Chiefs – South Carolina WR Xavier Legette
The Chiefs are a complete wild card with the final pick of the first round. I’ve debated Suamatia, Texas WR Xavier Worthy, and other receivers. Ultimately, I landed on Legette being a bit of a surprise selection in the first round.
