Betting on the NFL Draft is something that a lot of people want to do, but knowing what’s real and what isn’t can be a very big challenge. There are a lot of reporters and analysts out there who cover the draft and a lot of NFL scribes and people on the beat who haven’t had a whole lot to do for a while and they still need clicks, views, and relevancy. As a result, a lot of falsehoods, half-truths, and clickbait pour into the news cycle.
That’s not to say that everybody is lying. That’s not the case at all. Some people are definitely more plugged in than others. Some are less susceptible to being manipulated by agents and team representatives, so their reporting will have more legs and more legitimacy. But, it is extremely hard to separate one group from the other and it should also be said that neither group bats 1.000 or .000.
All we can do is attempt to take in all of the information, process it, and then ultimately decide what we think is real, what isn’t, and how what’s being reported applies to the trends that we’ve seen from team executives in previous draft processes, if possible. There are a lot of new head coaches and some new front offices this season, so perhaps there are more uncertainties on that front than usual. Still, with a lot of draft markets available, there are some reasonable bets to make.
Here are some of the 2026 NFL Draft bets that I think are worth considering. Note, odds are as of 2:30 p.m. PT on Monday, April 20. These odds move A TON and it’s hard for us to keep editing to keep pace, plus line moves will turn some things from wagers into stay-aways and vice versa, so it’s important to realize the time stamp on this writing.
Top 10 Pick: Kadyn Proctor +550, Monroe Freeling +600
Offensive line play around the league is pretty poor nowadays. If you can’t protect the quarterback, you are going to have a hard time winning games. Everybody seems to be in agreement that Francis Mauigoa is the top OL in this year’s draft. The last time we only had one OL taken in the first 10 picks was 2021, but that was a season where the first three picks were all QB, something we clearly don’t have to worry about here. There were no OL taken in the first 10 picks in 2019.
The risk profiles of GMs need to be analyzed when looking at these markets. Some guys are picking with self-preservation in mind and offensive linemen are usually pretty safe picks. They may be All-Pros or anything like that, but having a less effective lineman is far less noticeable than a disappointing skill player on either side of the ball.
Maybe teams will prioritize Spencer Fano over one of these two behind Mauigoa. After all, DraftKings has him at -125. Some draftniks believe that he’ll eventually have to transition to guard. Proctor and Freeling are less experienced, but seem more likely to stay at tackle. To me, I think it’s worth a shot that one of them goes in the first 10 picks.
Multiple teams in the top 10 have offensive line needs. Maybe not all of them are at tackle, which opens the door for Fano, but +550 and +600 seem like longer prices than they should be.
Los Angeles Rams Position of First Drafted Player: Offensive Lineman (+200)
For just the second time in his tenure, Sean McVay has a first-round pick. The Rams took Jared Verse back in 2024 with the 19th overall pick. His other first picks have been 46, 36, 104, 57, 52, 61, 89, and 44 and many of those players have been valuable contributors.
It should also be mentioned that the Rams took Cooper Kupp in the third round in 2017 and Puka Nacua in the fifth round in 2023. They took Kyren Williams in the fifth round in 2022 and Blake Corum in the third round in 2024. Perhaps they don’t want to have to hold out hope for yet another developmental win and just want to go ahead and take a wide receiver in the first round, but my belief is that they’ll take who they believe is a stud lineman.
Now, of course, the Rams are slated to pick 13th and could certainly trade back. Maybe that will alter their plans because the better OL might be gone by whenever they’re ready to go, but this feels like an organization confident in their ability to find skill players later. They’ve also found some good interior and exterior defenders. The earliest OL in the McVay era was Steve Avila back in 2023. He was drafted as a center, but has been a very good guard for the Rams. I think they could use some help at tackle and there may be multiple options. This also feels like a little bit of insurance on the Proctor/Freeling opinion above, since one of them available at 13 could very well be the pick.
Under 5.5 Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round (+130)
I already wrote about Ty Simpson and the First-Round Quarterbacks prop of 1.5, so let’s dig deeper into the receivers. I think we can safely say that four are locks to go in the first round – Makai Lemon, Jordyn Tyson, Carnell Tate, and Denzel Boston. Omar Cooper Jr. has a good chance as well coming from Curt Cignetti’s National Champion Hoosiers. I’d hardly call him a first-round lock, but teams like “winners” and players from Cignetti’s program have won a lot the last two seasons.
It seems like the recent hullabaloo with Zachariah Branch is a pretty big nothing-burger, but I don’t know that teams are dying to draft a 5-foot-9 WR in the first round. The smallest WR taken in the first round last season was Matthew Golden, who had 29 catches for 361 yards. Not that him and Branch are the exact same player, and Golden’s probably a better comp for Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion. Either him or Xavier Worthy, who was taken in the first round back in 2024 by the Chiefs. He only has a 59.1% Catch% and less than 40 yards per game through two seasons.
Maybe a team deep in the first round who can draft more of a luxury item goes after Concepcion or Branch, but it seems to be like either four or five will be the number. Seventeen WR were taken in Rounds 2 through 4 last year and teams probably feel like they can wait a little bit longer in a little bit of a down year at the position.
