When a lot of buzz precedes the NFL Draft, it’s usually due to multiple promising quarterback prospects. This draft lacks media hype mostly because only two quarterbacks could be picked in the first round, and the second-ranked passer — Ty Simpson from Alabama — could slip to the second round.
Simpson is the key to my betting performance in the NFL draft, and it’s not because I love him as a prospect. This is an information-based event and the most reliable sources indicate there is a good shot Simpson’s name will get called Thursday night in Pittsburgh.
When the dominoes start falling, the key player to projecting a mock draft with accuracy will be Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, whose window to go seems as high as No. 3 and as low as No. 7. The Arizona Cardinals, rarely a key team on any given Sunday, have their eyes on Love and Simpson in the first round. The Cardinals could trade down from the third spot, a move that would create chaos in the top 10.
The betting market for the draft is drying up, especially at Las Vegas sportsbooks, and getting tougher to beat. What that means is I have far fewer plays than ever this year. I had as many as 35 bets one year and might not have 10 this week. This event has resulted in a feast for most bettors and famine for most books the past eight years, so several bookmakers are in turtle formation, posting only a few props or none at all.
Two days before the draft kicks off, and one day before props are pulled off the board because of gaming regulations, here is my short list of best bets:
Quarterbacks drafted in the first round: Over 1.5 (-215, -185 and -160)
My first of three bets on this prop was made at DraftKings more than a month ago, after ESPN reporter Adam Schefter said he was confident Simpson would be a first-round pick. The bet at -215 turned out to be at a bad number because the market price peaked at -270 before falling all the way to -130 about a week ago. There are reasonable doubts about how many teams are actually competing to pursue Simpson. The Browns, Jets and Steelers need a quarterback, but those teams seem highly unlikely to pick Simpson early. The Cardinals and Rams are the primary candidates in the Simpson chase, but each team would need to make a trade to make it happen. Respected draft analysts Todd McShay and Tony Pauline recently made strong comments in support of Simpson going in the first.
Ty Simpson drafted by the Cardinals (+130)
This bet was made a few weeks ago and it’s now a good number, considering DraftKings currently has Arizona priced at -200 to pick Simpson. The Cardinals have a weak QB depth chart topped by Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, so they desperately need a franchise guy and new coach Mike LaFleur reportedly has an affinity for Simpson. Arizona is expected to be dealing and might move up from the second pick of the second round. Rams coach Sean McVay, in need of a backup to Matthew Stafford to groom as the future starter, also reportedly wants Simpson, but that’s probably not happening at No. 13.
Wide receivers drafted in the first round: Under 5.5 (+125)
At least four receivers will get called in the first round, with Ohio State’s Carnell Tate and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson being the first two. USC’s Makai Lemon and Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion are likely to follow. The other two who might go are Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. and Washington’s Denzel Boston, but I’m betting one of those players slips to the second round.
Steelers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+160)
Aaron Rodgers’ future is up in the air again, and the hiring of coach Mike McCarthy was a dubious decision. If Rodgers doesn’t return, McCarthy should focus on developing second-year quarterback Will Howard. Either way, Pittsburgh’s priority is to build a better line.
Chargers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+155)
Injuries to bookend tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater caused the Chargers’ line to fall apart in front of quarterback Justin Herbert last season, and coach Jim Harbaugh’s focus should be to strengthen the interior both to improve the running attack and protect Herbert.
Bills position of first drafted player: Linebacker (+750)
Buffalo does not have many needs, but linebacker is one and there could be two good options late in the first round with Georgia’s CJ Allen and Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez.
49ers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+100)
This prop is priced at even money for good reason. In a draft full of strong offensive line prospects, San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will be looking to start up front.
Seahawks position of first drafted player: Cornerback (+150)
The Super Bowl champs lost running back Kenneth Walker to Kansas City, but that void can be addressed later. The most pressing need is a corner.
While there is zero intrigue preceding the No. 1 overall pick in this NFL draft, things could get wildly unpredictable beginning with the second pick, especially if there are multiple trades. There were five draft-day deals in the first round last year, also five in 2024, seven in 2023 and nine in 2022. I rarely project trades in a mock draft as that’s a nearly impossible guessing game, but I’ll make one exception this time because of Simpson.
I have done NFL mock drafts for newspapers and websites since the late 1990s, first as a beat writer covering the Chicago Bears, and many of those were for entertainment purposes. But for those of us who bet on the draft, working through the exercise of a mock first round has a purpose. In forming a plan of attack for prop wagers, it’s important to analyze team needs and dig for information to predict how the puzzle pieces fit. A mock is meant to predict what the teams will do and not what I would do. Last year, I pegged the Raiders taking Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 and that was a popular opinion, but I did not believe that was the right call by the Raiders.
In 2022, NFLmockdraftdatabase.com tracked and scored 1,375 mock drafts published by media outlets and my NFL mock for VSIN.com ranked No. 3 with 25.7% accuracy based on players picked in correct spots and by specific teams. I hit on a majority of the top 10 picks and a few others in the first round again last year. This year’s first round feels more difficult to predict, and I considered slotting Love into the seventh spot.
Before we cringe while watching commissioner Roger Goodell’s bizarre bear hugs with players walking on stage, and with the expectation that the draft order will be juggled by trades, this is my first and only shot at an NFL mock draft.
Matt Youmans’ NFL Mock Draft 1.0
1. Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
2. Jets: Arvell Reese, OLB, Ohio State
3. Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
4. Titans: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
5. Giants: David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech
6. Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
7. Commanders: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
8. Saints: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
9. Chiefs: Rueben Bain, DE, Miami
10. Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
11. Dolphins: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
12. Cowboys: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
13. Rams: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
14. Ravens: Spencer Fano, OL, Utah
15. Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
16. Jets: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
17. Lions: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
18. Vikings: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
19. Panthers: Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
20. Cowboys: Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
21. Steelers: Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
22. Chargers: Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&M
23. Eagles: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
24. Browns: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
25. Cardinals (trade with Bears): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
26. Bills: CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
27. 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
28. Texans: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
29. Chiefs: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
30. Dolphins: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
31. Patriots: Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
32. Seahawks: Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
