Sunday Night MLB: Rangers vs. Red Sox
A long, busy, and exciting weekend of baseball comes to a close with the Rangers vs. Red Sox at iconic Fenway Park for the Sunday Night Baseball game on NBC and Peacock. We’ll see if the Stanley Cup Finals end tonight or not, but with the NBA coming to a close last night, baseball will take center stage a lot going forward and these primetime games are good opportunities for those who haven’t been paying close attention to get caught up.
It will be veteran right-hander, and former Red Sock, Nathan Eovaldi for Texas and Connelly Early for Boston with the 7:20 p.m. ET first pitch in Beantown.
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See player prop projections for Rangers vs. Red Sox from OptaAI.
How to Watch Rangers vs. Red Sox
Where: NBC/Peacock
When: Sunday June 14, 7:20 p.m. ET
Rangers vs. Red Sox MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox -114 // Texas Rangers -105
Total: 9 (-114/-105)
Rangers vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Rangers -105
Eovaldi was a journeyman early in his career. He was drafted by and debuted with the Dodgers, but got sent to Miami in his second season, spending parts of 2012 and all of 2013 and 2014 in South Beach. After a stint with the hated Yankees and a partial season with the Rays, Eovaldi found his way to Boston, where he pitched from 2018-22. Now, he’s in his fourth season with Texas and will make his 311th career start tonight.
Early was drafted in 2023 and fast-tracked to the big leagues by 2025. He’ll make his 18th career start in this one, as he checks in with a 3.30 ERA, but some concerning signs with his other run estimators showing a 4.56 xERA, 4.75 FIP, and a 4.21 xFIP over 71 innings of work. Early’s high strikeout rates from the minors and last year’s four-start pot of coffee have not translated to the bigs as of yet and his 9.5% SwStr% suggests that his K% may be dropping soon.
Early has allowed 23 Barrels thus far already for an 11.6% Barrel% and that’s something to watch going forward, especially as the weather warms up. He does draw a Texas team that has had all sorts of issues with lefties this season, slashing just .228/.304/.381 with a 26.2% K%. However, over the last 14 days, the Rangers are swinging it well against southpaws with a .271/.337/.532 slash and a .374 wOBA that is second to the A’s.
Eovaldi has had some bad luck this season, but has also created his own problems. His 19.5% HR/FB% is the highest he’s had since the COVID-shortened 2020 season and has led to a 4.26 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 4.59 FIP in 80.1 innings of work. Interestingly enough, Eovaldi has allowed the same number of Barrels as Early in more batted ball attempts. Early hasn’t seen the long ball hurt him. Eovaldi has.
As always, Eovaldi is stingy with walks and has done well to miss bats and induce chases. Boston has been an average lineup against RHP over the last 30 days, slashing .263/.309/.435 with just a 5.4% BB%.
Bullpen volatility is an annual tradition in the bigs and the Rangers are experiencing it this season. Over the last 30 days, they are 14th in reliever ERA at 3.82, but have a 4.30 xERA and a 4.42 FIP. Last year’s bullpen led the big leagues in ERA. In that 30-day span, the Red Sox are a top-five relief unit. That’s why we see Texas favored for the 1st 5, but Boston for the full game, presenting some interesting live betting opportunities.
This game has definitely earned its toss-up label, especially with the Red Sox playing so poorly until taking the first two games of the series, while the Rangers had been playing much better of late before dropping the first two. I think they avoid the sweep tonight.
